V. Observed Variations in Timellines for Commercialization
In Section V, expectations
about timelines for revenues are examined and compared with expected windows
of opportunity, by technology area.
A. Expectations about the
Timeline for Commercialization
When Can We Expect to See Revenues?
But there is considerable
variation across the entire time period. For IT applications, revenues
are expected for 28% of applications during the period of ATP funding
and for 64% of applications by a year after ATP funding ends, the highest
proportion for any technology area. Only 25% of materials-chemistry applications
and 32% of biotech applications are expected to generate revenues by a
year after ATP funding ends.
When we examine the
underlying data, we see that while the activity for IT peaks a
year after ATP funding ends, the expected peak in new applications reaching
the market for other technology areas appears a year later.
have some early applications, but then they experience a steep rise in
activity in the second year after ATP, followed by a fall-off more rapid
than in any other technology area except IT.
and manufacturing-based applications build up somewhat more slowly
and tail off more slowly than electronics and IT.
have an initial spurt of activity in the second year after ATP funding
ends, then another spurt five or more years later.
plans are credible, we expect the window of market opportunity to shadow
the expected timing of revenues. This windows timing will pose a
constraint on commercial viability of the technologies in their planned
Figure 2 shows responses
to the following question:
What is the window of market
How Long Will the Window of Market Oppportunity Stay Open?
The expected windows of opportunity mirror expectations about the timeline to commercialization, with about a one-year lag. For IT, this is especially true. While 35% of applications across all technologies expect a market window of just one year after ATP funding ends, the proportion within IT is 52%, the highest such proportion for any technology area. As seen above, this is consistent with expectations of the timing of revenues for this technology group.
Most electronics applications
are under pressure to reach the market within about two years after ATP.
Only a few applicationslargely in biotechnologyare expected to see the market opportunity window open longer than five years after ATP.
Date created: March
Last updated: April 12, 2005
NIST is an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department