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NISTIR
6917
Different Timelines for Different Technologies:
Evidence from the Advanced Technology Program
II. Data and
Methodology
Section II provides
an overview of the data source drawn upon for this study and outlines
the analytical framework used.
A. Overview of Data
The study draws on
data collected through ATP’s Business Reporting System (BRS)
from 1993, when the BRS was established, through September 30, 1999, from
firms receiving awards in competitions conducted 1993–1998 and still
in their ATP-funding phase. An Appendix includes
data from post-ATP funding interviews conducted in 2000 through early
2002 for a matched set of companies. Specific variables used and coverage
are discussed in each section.
ATP’s Business
Reporting System (BRS) consists of information collected systematically
from the start of ATP funding, in a Baseline Report, annually over the
course of ATP funding, in Anniversary Reports, in a project Close-out
Report, and subsequently every two years for six years after ATP funding
ends, in Post-project Surveys. The system tracks the progress of projects
in pursuing their business plans and achieving the anticipated economic
benefits outlined in project proposals. The surveys are electronically
administered over the course of ATP funding; then telephone interviews
are subsequently carried out three times over the six following years.
This survey system has been implemented for projects funded since 1993,
from their inception.
B. Methodology of the Study
The study follows
a set of sequential steps:
- Step 1:
A synthesis of selected studies in the literature is used to cast an
innovation life-cycle framework for studying the variation in commercialization
patterns for different types of technologies.
- Step 2:
ATP-funded projects covered by the study are classified by core technology
being developed and mapped to their target applications, by industry,
and by type of application (product, process, service).
- Step 3:
Expectations about timelines for revenues from ATP-funded technologies
are examined and compared with expected windows of opportunity for all
planned commercial applications, by technology area. These expectations
about timing serve as the major indicator of commercialization patterns.
- Step 4:
Through application of the innovation life-cycle model, differences
in firm size, project structure, and other project characteristics,
taken together with the underlying technological and economic environment,
help explain commercialization patterns identified in Step 3.
- Step 5:
Completed projects, companies, and commercial applications for which
a matched set of data is available are used to compare expectations
about timing of commercialization with actual experience. This step
is extended to two to three years after ATP funding with the analysis
of Post-project Survey information. This analysis seeks to determine
whether actual commercialization patterns will meet expectations and
thus whether patterns described in project proposals are credible. The
evidence of actual progress the analysis provides may serve as feedback
to ATP project management and to the selection processes. Given the
preliminary and limited nature of the data available, this analysis
is presented in the Appendix.
Return to Table
of Contents or go to III. Industry and Firm Differences
in Innovation: Analytical Models in the Literature
Date created: March
4, 2003
Last updated:
April 12, 2005
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