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NISTIR
6917
Different Timelines for Different Technologies:
Evidence from the Advanced Technology Program
ABSTRACT
Case studies of the
first completed ATP projects have shown considerable variation in commercialization
patterns of ATP-funded technologies. These variations were apparent in
the timing of initial revenues, commercialization in more mature and multiple
applications, and diffusion of ATP technologies relative to the period
of ATP funding of R&D. This study analyzes differences in commercialization
patterns for different ATP-funded technologies in a systematic way. To
do this, the following questions are addressed:
- How do expected
commercialization patterns differ for ATP projects in different technology
areas?
- What factors appear
to account for at least some of the differences?
- To what extent
are actual commercialization patterns mapping to plans?
This study uses data
collected through ATP’s Business Reporting System from 558
participants in 299 ATP projects funded between 1993 and 1998. Business
expectations and strategies for nearly 1,200 commercial applications of
participants’ ATP-funded technologies are described. Technology differences
are examined within a broader innovation life-cycle framework in order
to provide a greater understanding of the broader technological and industry
environments underlying commercialization patterns.
Using the timing of
initial revenues for individual commercial applications to indicate commercialization
patterns, the study observed the following:
- Across all
technologies and commercial applications, revenues are expected:
- for one out of six applications by the end of ATP funding.
- for two out of five applications within a year after ATP funding
ends.
- for four out of five applications within three years after ATP
funding ends.
- Technology
affects timing:
- Information technology (IT) applications are anticipated to earn
revenues very quickly.
- Materials-chemistry and manufacturing applications are anticipated
to be the slowest to earn revenues. These are expected to lag IT
by about a year.
- Early biotechnology applications follow the overall average in
the early years for small-volume research users, but there is a
noticeable second spurt in activity five or more years out, when
regulatory requirements are expected to be met for health-care applications.
- Electronics applications show a steep rise in activity in the
second year after ATP, followed by a rapid fall-off in activity.
- Factors suggested
by the innovation life-cycle model in the economics of innovation literature
appear to account for differences by technology area.
- Preliminary
assessment of actual commercialization activity compared with expectations
shows the following:
- More applications
had been commercialized by the end of the ATP-funding period than
expected—in first-generation products or services—in nearly
all technology areas.
- A large portion
of the projects that will ultimately achieve commercialization will
do so, for their initial applications, within 2 to 3 years after
ATP.
- Further work and
additional data for the post-ATP period are needed to examine actual
commercialization patterns over longer time periods.
Keywords
- Advanced Technology
Program (ATP)
- commercialization
- innovation life-cycle
- technology development
- timeline
Return to Table
of Contents or go to Acknowledgments.
Date created: March
4, 2003
Last updated:
April 12, 2005
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