NISTIR-6098
Development, Commercialization, and Diffusion of Enabling Technologies
Progress Report for Projects
Funded 1993-1995
8. RELATIONSHIP TO PRIOR
WORK AND CONCLUSIONS
Although nearly all the
ATP projects funded 1993-1995 were still in the R&D phase as of December
31, 1996, an analysis of the business reports from 179 projects after
one-to-two years of funding suggests that the necessary conditions for
achieving national economic benefits are evolving, although not necessarily
at the same rate or to the same extent for all projects.
Relationship to Prior Work
Findings from the BRS data
are largely consistent with the findings of two third-party surveys of
projects not in the BRS. Silber & Associates surveyed projects funded
from 1990 through 1992 after approximately two-to-three years of funding
(Silber & Associates, 1996). Solomon
Associates surveyed ATP's first competition awardees after just one year
of funding (Solomon, 1993). The BRS captures much greater detail than
the third-party telephone surveys, explicitly covering the evolution
of a myriad of applications. And, of course, the BRS captures the voices
of awardees directly without a third party intervening. Although specific
summary statistics differ somewhat, analyses of BRS data generally confirm
earlier survey results that ATP awards are "enabling [industry] to afford
and engage in high risk research," "stimulating collaboration and formation
of strategic alliances," "shortening the R&D cycle," "helping attract
additional funding," and "creating new business opportunities," among
the many other effects reported by those earlier studies. Results of
the current study are also consistent with and confirmatory of preliminary
results given in a recently published conference paper which analyzed
data for ATP projects funded in 1993-1995, but with only the 1993 projects
(41 companies reporting) having completed at least one year of ATP funding
(Powell, 1997).
Summary of Findings
Opportunities for economic
spillovers from the portfolio of projects in the BRS appear strong, and
for the most part consistent with the original peer-review proposal assessments.
Project participants have identified more than 1,000 applications of
the technologies under development and provided commercialization plans
for nearly 800 applications spanning the spectrum of SIC industries.
Most applications involve new products with significant performance improvements
over existing/defender technologies, offering dramatic possibilities
for productivity improvements. Many are "new-to-the-world-products" aimed
at brand new markets. Most companies seek to address stages of production
relatively early in the production chain, for example, materials processing
or component manufacture, creating maximum opportunity for intermediate
producers/customers at multiple later stages, and even in multiple application
areas, to experience market spillovers.
Opportunities for additional
economic spillovers through technology diffusion are being enhanced by
patent and licensing activity and dissemination of non-proprietary information.
ATP projects build on more than 2,000 existing patents, and more than
60 percent of companies plan to patent or copyright their ATP-funded
technologies as a major intellectual property strategy. More than one
hundred patents have been filed, and the first patents have been issued.
Licensing to others is a primary or secondary strategy for commercializing
43 percent of the planned applications. Conference activity and publication
of papers has been very vigorous, with an average of nearly two conference
papers presented and 0.6 professional journal articles published per
project.
Consistent with ATP's mission
to accelerate the creation and commercialization of advanced technologies,
acceleration of the R&D process and time-to-market reduction appear
to be important project goals, with acceleration of at least two years
anticipated for 62 percent of applications. In many cases the time saved
may be critical to meeting the narrow window of opportunity in fast-paced,
highly competitive technology and product areas. Eighty-six percent of
organizations indicate they are already ahead in their R&D cycle
as a result of ATP funding; of these, 39 percent believe they would not
have started the project without ATP funding; 53 percent are one to three
years ahead after just one-to-two years of ATP funding.
ATP funding appears to
have stimulated increases in private sector investment in high risk R&D.
Some projects would not have been undertaken at all with ATP funding,
and others received a higher level of private investment as a result
of ATP funding. An estimated $200 million of company internal funds have
been invested in or committed to ATP projects beyond what industry alone
would have invested in the absence of the ATP awards, an estimated 59
percent increase in industry's investment in the ATP-funded technology
areas. This increased industry investment is in addition to the ATP funding
and the funding industry would otherwise have invested. An additional
$150 million of new funding from other sources has been attracted to
support the ATP-funded technology development and commercialization of
current or future products. Most organizations further report that the
ATP award has changed the nature of their R&D program to encompass
a broader scope, higher level of technical risk, and/or longer-term R&D
horizon.
The ATP appears to be meeting
its legislated objectives of stimulating successful collaborations among
companies and among industry, universities, and research laboratories.
Seventy-eight percent of organizations, from a mix of joint venture and
single-company projects, report that collaboration has helped achieve
the ATP project goals. Of these: 85 percent indicated that the ATP was
responsible to a moderate or great extent for the collaborations; 99
percent reported that stimulation of creative thinking was significantly
or moderately enabled by collaboration; 80 percent reported that saving
time and/or accelerating entry into the marketplace were significantly
or moderately enabled by collaboration; and more than 75 percent reported
that obtaining R&D expertise, identifying customer needs, and/or
encouraging future collaborations were significantly or moderately enabled
by collaboration. Of the same group, about half indicated that project
coordination and management costs were significantly or moderately affected
by collaboration; however, only 20 percent reported significant delays
in beginning the R&D, and only 6 percent anticipated delays in product
entry into the marketplace or other difficulties as a result of collaboration
costs.
Companies report active
engagement in the commercialization planning activities needed to enter
the marketplace in a timely manner, once the technology is ready. Companies
in 77 percent of the projects have completed product/process definition
for at least one application; companies in 56 percent of the projects
have completed concept testing for at least one application. Companies
in 25 percent of the projects have moved to new space in order to expand
production; companies in 19 percent of projects have purchased or leased
new plant and equipment to expand production. Although production has
begun for only four percent of applications being planned, 41 percent
of projects have completed a production prototype for at least one application,
and 35 percent of projects have completed pilot production or a commercial
demonstration for at least one application. Alliances are being negotiated
with strategic partners for commercialization, with small companies particularly
focused on this activity.
Progress towards achieving
revenue goals is also reported. Most expect revenue one-to-three years
after the project ends, but for about one-fourth of applications, revenue
is expected from spin-off activities before the end of ATP funding, and
for nearly 10 percent of applications and projects revenue is not expected
until four or more years after the ATP project ends. Forty percent of
the companies, representing 52 percent of the projects, report they are
now able to make a new or improved product, even though the product may
not be ready for the marketplace for some time. Twenty-eight percent
of companies, representing nearly 39 percent of projects, report they
have adopted process improvements resulting from ATP funding. About 10
percent of companies, representing 15 percent of projects, indicate they
had already earned some early revenues, amounting to more than $20 million
by December 1996, from sales of samples and prototypes and early "spin-off" products.
The first licensing revenues have also been realized. The nature and
timing of the first revenues appear consistent with the R&D status
of these projects and projected timeline for revenues (see Figure
13).
Plans for Future Work
The ATP plans to continue
the BRS data collection for future projects and participants funded by
the program. In addition to providing a large volume of data covering
more projects for a longer time period, the BRS will continue to provide
an evolving picture, with statistical summary metrics, of the status
of ATP projects towards meeting ATP's legislated economic objectives.
Besides routine data collection and maintenance, work is anticipated
in a number of areas:
Improved data quality--More
analysis is needed to ensure high data quality for all responses. New
strategies and procedures are being developed to test for misunderstanding
of questions or inappropriate mode of response, and to obtain validation/correction
in an efficient and unbiased manner.
Additional, detailed studies
using the BRS--The BRS supports detailed analysis of any project subgroup
of interest, for example, a specific project type, industry sector, technology,
or geographical location. The BRS database is part of the broader ATP
relational database structure and can further be linked to external,
establishment-level national data sources by 4-digit SIC code. Under
appropriate restrictions to maintain confidentiality, the data will be
used by economic researchers in studies of ATP project and program progress
and impact. The BRS data can also be used in conjunction with information
from diverse sources to support a variety of evaluation studies, including
detailed case studies. (An overview of other ATP evaluation studies recently
completed or nearing completion is provided by Ruegg, "ATP's
Evaluation Plan and Progress," 1997. Guidelines for developing and
selecting evaluation studies are described by Ruegg in "Guidelines
for Economic Evaluation of the Advanced Technology Program," 1996).
Extension of the BRS--Extension
of this database is focusing on development of questions for post-project
reports required every two years for six years following the end of the
ATP award. These questions will update commercialization activity and
probe in more detail for evidence of intra-industry and inter-industry
diffusion of ATP-funded technologies and of benefits to users, for example,
health and safety impacts, as well as longer-term economic impacts on
the companies funded. This information will be invaluable in studies
of economic spillovers.
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Date created: December
1997
Last updated:
August 3, 2005
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