Composites Manufacturing Technologies: Applications in Automotive, Petroleum, and Civil Infrastructure Industries

NIST GCR 04-863
Composites Manufacturing Technologies: Applications in Automotive, Petroleum, and Civil Infrastructure Industries
Economic Study of a Cluster of ATP-Funded Projects

Executive Summary

Polymer composites are hybrid materials consisting of reinforcing fibers in a polymer resin, which are formed to a desired shape and engineered to achieve performance specifications.

High-performance composite materials are strong, lightweight, and corrosion resistant, as well as expensive to manufacture and not widely used in large-scale commercial applications.

In 1994, the Advanced Technology Program (ATP) undertook a program focused on composites manufacturing to trigger the creation of an infrastructure for commercial composite manufacturing (Wu 2002). The focused program was aimed at helping U.S. companies develop the technical capability for producing vast amounts of affordable performance composites. This new capacity was to be targeted at large-scale commercial

applications in the automotive, offshore oil production, and civil infrastructure industries. The performance benefits of composite materials, validated in the focused program, would then be delivered to other U.S. industries and end users.

From 1994 to 2000, ATP invested $43 million, along with industry partners who invested $39 million, in 22 high-risk projects. Fifteen of the 22 ATP-funded projects reached completion; seven closed early. Upon program completion, significant innovations in composite manufacturing were realized, which can be expected to produce the following results:

Rapid, high-volume, low-cost manufacturing processes.
Affordable high performance composites.
Expanded commercial and industrial utilization.

To assess the economic and societal benefits from the ATP-funded program, a clusterstudy approach was used to combine the methodological advantages of detailed case studies and higher-level overview studies. Five projects targeted by the focused program were selected for analysis, spanning automotive, offshore oil production, and civil infrastructure applications. The projects were as follows:

Vapor-Grown Carbon Fibers for Automotive Applications.
Composite Production Risers for Offshore Oil Production.
Innovative Joining/Fitting Systems for Composite Piping Systems.
Innovative Manufacturing Techniques for Large Composite Shapes.
Synchronous CNC Machining of Pultruded Lineals.

Within the cluster of five projects, two were singled out as having the most probable near-term prospects for commercial deployment and associated public benefits:

Vapor-Grown Carbon Fibers for Automotive Applications.
Composite Production Risers for Offshore Oil Production.

For these two projects, detailed case studies were conducted to identify key technical accomplishments, identify pathways to market, and quantify productivity, capital efficiency, and environmental benefits.

This executive summary describes the results of the cluster study, composed of two detailed case studies and high-level analysis for the remaining three projects. Cluster study research and analysis were completed during 2002 and early 2003.

COMPOSITE MATERIALS

Composites are systems of at least two component materials, acting in concert, with physical properties that are not attainable by individual components acting alone. Reinforcing fibers provide strength and stiffness. The matrix material binds the fibers together, provides form and rigidity, transfers load to the fibers, and protects loadbearing fiber from corrosion and wear. A technical discussion of composite materials is provided in an appendix.

Engineers can utilize over 50,000 materials for the design and manufacture of engineered products, including metals, polymers, ceramics, and composites. While metals and polymers are currently the dominant materials for engineering applications, composite utilization is gradually increasing due to superior strength, low weight, and improved thermal and electrical performance characteristics. Lower composite manufacturing costs would accelerate this trend, especially in cost-sensitive industrial mass markets.

MARKET APPLICATIONS AND PROJECTIONS

For automotive applications, ATP-funded vapor-grown carbon fibers are likely to be used in the following ways:

Exterior automotive panels to facilitate electrostatic painting.
Electromagnetic interference shielding without metal or metal coated enclosures.
Automotive tires for improved fuel economy.

By 2006, vapor-grown carbon fiber utilization for exterior painting and electromagnetic interference shielding applications is likely to start with a single model year of 90,000 vehicles. By 2010, vapor-grown carbon fibers could be incorporated in one million vehicles for exterior painting and in 1.5 million vehicles for electromagnetic interference shielding. Automotive tire applications are projected to start in 2011 with 1.25 million tires.

For offshore oil production, starting in 2007, ATP-funded composite production risers will be used to reach increasingly deep petroleum reservoirs in the Gulf of Mexico. Over a period of 16 years, lightweight composite production risers are expected to be used in the

Construction of 15 new oil production platforms.
Redeployment of 9 existing platforms that have exhausted their underlying reservoirs.

Prior to 2007, as part of a transitional stage, composite production risers could also be used in currently operating Gulf of Mexico platforms to complete remaining production wells and expand production from nearby lateral reserves.

BENEFIT-TO-COST ANALYSIS

Based on primary research and analysis, the cluster study projects high public returns on ATP’s investment in five composite manufacturing projects:

Benefit-to-cost ratios on ATP’s investment ranging from 83:1 to 92:1 (base case versus step-out scenarios in 2003 dollars).
Net present value of ATP’s investment ranging from $892 to $994 million.
Public rates of return on ATP’s investment ranging from 44 to 46 percent.

The above indicators point to exceptional returns to the nation on ATP’s investment.

For every dollar of ATP’s $9 million investment in the cluster of five projects, U.S. industry, U.S. consumers, and the nation can expect to enjoy $83 of quantifiable dollar benefits. If more optimistic step-out scenario conditions prevail, public benefits could reach $92 for every dollar of public investment.

When cash flow benefits from the cluster of five projects are measured against ATP’s entire $43 million investment in the 22 projects of the composites manufacturing program, projected public benefits remain at $18 for every dollar of ATP’s investment.

These performance metrics reflect the estimated benefits to industry users and the general public relative to the ATP investment. Estimated benefits to direct recipients of ATP funding are excluded.

Performance metrics are estimated on the basis of conservative assumptions, including an average market price of crude oil at $20 per barrel and average retail gasoline price at $1.50 per gallon. If average prices increase to higher levels, the expected benefits from ATP-funded technologies and performance metrics will also increase.

Qualitative benefits, which can not be quantified at this time, illustrate the potential of innovative composites manufacturing technologies to create public benefits along multiple dimensions of societal value. These benefits include:

Quality improvements for exterior automotive panels.
Reduced oil consumption from improved automotive fuel economies.
Increased domestic oil production from reaching substantial new petroleum reserves in the Gulf of Mexico.
Improved maintainability of offshore oil production risers.
Reduced harmful environmental emissions from automotive painting processes.
Reduced traffic congestion in metropolitan areas.

CONCLUSIONS

The cluster study concludes that several ATP-funded composite manufacturing projects have made significant progress toward meeting the necessary conditions for commercial implementation. For the two case study projects, technological advantages are close to being translated into business advantages, including:

Large-scale production of composite components and products.
Improved cost competitiveness with traditional engineering materials.

Based on the above elements of progress toward commercial implementation, the cluster study concludes that public returns from ATP’s investment have a strong probability of being realized for automotive and offshore oil production. There is also a reasonable likelihood that future benefits will be realized from civil infrastructure applications.

Research performed for this study indicates that ATP’s industry partners would not have developed high-risk, low-cost composites manufacturing technologies without ATP support and without ATP facilitation of broad-based industrial joint ventures. The study concludes that the above benefits are directly attributable to ATP investment.

Table ES-1. Summary of Benefits from ATP’s Investment in a Cluster of Five Composites Manufacturing Projects

Broad-based economic benefits

For every dollar of ATP’s $9 million cost share in the cluster of five projects, U.S. industry, consumers, and the nation can expect to enjoy $83 of public benefits.
For every dollar of ATP’s $43 million cost share in the program of 22 projects, U.S. industry, consumers, and the nation can expect to enjoy $18 of public benefits.

Qualitative benefits from the Vapor-Grown Carbon Fiber project

Decreased harmful volatile organic compound emissions from automotive painting operations and reduced environmental compliance costs.
Increased engineering design flexibility and improved dimensional stability from thermal stresses.
Improved fuel economy resulting from reduced tire rolling resistance and the use of lightweight composites.

Qualitative benefits from the Composite Production Riser project

Increased domestic oil production from deepwater Gulf of Mexico reserves.
Improved maintainability of corrosion resistant composite risers in highly saline marine environments.

Qualitative benefits from civil infrastructure projects

Reduced traffic congestion and congestion costs.
Avoided fuel consumption and automotive emissions.

Cross-industry knowledge diffusion

The implementation of new industrial processes, as well as licensing and manufacturing joint ventures, will tend to reveal aspects of the new knowledge to other economic agents.

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Date created: July 14, 2004
Last updated: August 3, 2005

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