NIST
GCR 04-863
Composites Manufacturing Technologies: Applications in Automotive, Petroleum,
and Civil Infrastructure Industries
Economic Study of a Cluster of ATP-Funded Projects
7. Conclusions
The cluster-study approach
of focusing on a few, targeted, ATP-funded projects is an efficient methodology
for evaluating agency investment in high-risk composites manufacturing
technologies.
Technology portfolios
are complex, interdependent, and responsive to sudden changes in the
research environment such as breakthroughs, new barriers, and collaboration
patterns. Only a subset of agency-funded projects can be expected to
succeed on a commercial basis. Hence, the relevant performance criterion
for agency technology programs, as for privately funded venture capital
portfolios, is not the average performance of all investments, but rather
the performance of a subset of successful projects against agency program
investment.
Starting in 1994, the
Advanced Technology Program undertook a focused program of 22 composite
manufacturing technology projects to develop these technologies and benefits:
- Rapid, high-volume,
and low-cost composite manufacturing processes.
- Affordable, high-performance
composites with high strength, lightweight, appropriate electrical
conductivity, and corrosion resistance.
- Expanded use of composites
in U.S. automotive, offshore oil production, and civil infrastructure
industries.
To evaluate the expected
performance of the focused program, a cluster of five projects spanning
automotive, offshore oil production, and civil infrastructure applications
were selected for analysis. Within this cluster, two projects were singled
out as having the most probable near-term prospects for commercial deployment
and for generating substantial economic benefits: the Vapor-Grown Carbon
Fiber (VGCF) project for automotive applications and the Composite Production
Riser (CPR) project for offshore oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Detailed case studies were conducted for the VGCF and CPR projects and
higher-level overview studies were conducted for the remaining three
projects in the cluster.
Cluster analysis points
to substantial public returns on ATP’s investment. For every dollar
of ATP’s $9 million investment in the cluster of
five projects, U.S. industry, consumers, and the nation will enjoy $83
of benefits. For every dollar of ATP’s $43 million investment in
the 22 projects of the focused program, U.S. industry,
consumers, and the nation will enjoy $18 of benefits.
In addition to these quantitative
performance metrics, cluster analysis also points to broad-based qualitative
benefits including automotive body quality benefits, energy production
benefits, reduced harmful environmental emissions, and reduced construction-related
traffic congestion in metropolitan areas.
Based on extensive fact
finding, the cluster study supports the following conclusions:
- Projected public returns
and broad-based economic benefits to the U.S. automotive, offshore
oil, and civic infrastructure industries have a strong probability
of being realized.
- ATP’s industry
partners would not have developed these high-risk, low-cost composites
manufacturing technologies without ATP support and without ATP facilitation
of broad-based industrial joint ventures.
As the cluster analysis
targeted only a few ATP-funded projects deemed to have the greatest current
potential for commercialization and benefit generation, it is likely
that additional ATP-funded composites manufacturing technologies will
progress toward commercialization and benefit society over time. When
appropriate, additional cash flow benefits from these remaining technologies
can be estimated and the levels of performance metrics adjusted upward.
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Date created: July 14,
2004
Last updated:
August 3, 2005
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