END NOTES

1. This paper draws freely on my publications listed in the References.
2. See Steele (1988).
3. R & D executives of this firm provided a description of these analyses. The identity of the firm is withheld to insure that no confidential information is divulged.
4. The material in quotation marks in this section comes from internal memoranda of the firm provided by R$D executives.
5. See Mansfield and Wagner (1975).
6. Ibid.
7. Ibid.
8. There is some fragmentary evidence that firms' estimates of the returns from the adoption of a new technology may have improved in the past thirty years. See Mansfield (forthcoming b). But this, of course, does not mean that the kinds of forecasts discussed in this section have improved significantly.
9. The identity of this firm is withheld to insure that no confidential information is divulged.
10. Profit here is defined to be gross of any depreciation on the investment in the innovation. Basically, it is a cash-flow concept.
11. See Mansfield (1968).
12. For a list of limitations of our model, see Mansfield et al (1977 a, b).

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Date created: June 15, 2006
Last updated: June 16, 2006

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