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Estimating Social and Private Returns from Innovations
Based on the
Advanced Technology Program:
Problems and Opportunities
Edwin Mansfield
University of Pennsylvania
GCR 99-780
January 1996 |
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface
Executive Summary
1. INTRODUCTION
2. INDUSTRY'S ESTIMATION OF PRIVATE RETURNS FROM NEW TECHNOLOGY
- Scoring Systems
- Programming Techniques
- Decision Analysis
3. BENEFITS OF EARLY INTEGRATION OF R&D AND COMMERCIALIZATION PLANS
4. ERRORS IN FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT COST, TIME, AND PROFITS
- Development Cost and Time
- Probability of Technical Completion
- Discounted Profits from New Processes and Products
5. ESTIMATION OF SOCIAL RETURNS FROM NEW TECHNOLOGY
6. FURTHER COMPLICATIONS AND ADJUSTMENTS
7. OTHER TYPES OF INNOVATIONS
8. FOLLOW-ON STUDIES BY FOSTER AND NATHAN
9. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SOCIAL AND PRIVATE RETURNS
10. FORECASTING SOCIAL RATES OF RETURN
11. MODELS OF THE DIFFUSION PROCESS
12. EXTENDING AND IMPLEMENTING THE MODEL
13. DATA AVAILABILITY AND RESEARCH STRATEGY
References
End Notes
Figures
Figure 1 - Proportion of new processes or new product
Figure 2 - Social Benefits from Product Innovation that Reduces the Costs of the Industries Using It
Date created: June 15, 2006
Last updated: June 16, 2006
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