11. MODELS OF THE DIFFUSION PROCESS

While economic models of the diffusion process seem to be far more advanced than economic models of the invention process, this does not mean that they are other than crude devices. Particularly when a radical innovation is in its infancy, it is notoriously difficult to predict how rapidly and how far its use will spread. For example, when computers were first introduced, the extent of their diffusion and significance was often under-estimated.

Nonetheless, economic models of the diffusion process, while still in the experimental stages, may prove useful in forecasting the growth of Q₂. At a minimum, they should be a helpful check on the realism of firms' forecasts. For examples of their use in this regard, see Mansfield (1989, 1993).

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Date created: June 15, 2006
Last updated: June 16, 2006

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