NIST GCR 06-889 - Findings from the Advanced Technology Program's Survey of Joint Ventures
7. ATP-supported Joint Venture Projects Have Greater Technical Risk and Longer Time Horizons Than Typical Company R&D Projects
Projects funded by the Advanced Technology Program (ATP) must demonstrate a high degree of technical risk. Given the risks inherent in these innovative projects, it is also expected that the time horizon to realize results is longer. The Survey of ATP Joint Ventures explores the degree to which ATP-funded joint venture projects are more technically risky relative to typical R&D projects at the company and have longer time horizons relative to typical R&D projects at the company.
Survey Questions |
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Consider technical risk. At the start of the project, what would you say was the approximate probability, from 0% to 100%, that your company could fully achieve the technical goals defined for your part of the ATP joint venture project?
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What is the approximate probability, from 0% to 100%, that a typical R&D project at your company could fully achieve its technical goals?
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Consider the expected impact of the joint venture project on your company. Approximately how many years after the start of your ATP joint venture project could you expect results to first have an impact on company revenues or costs?
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Approximately how many years after the start of a typical R&D project could you expect results to first have an impact on company revenues or costs?
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Note: Only statistically significant results are reported in this publication.
ATP--funded joint venture projects have more technical risk than typical R&D projects at the company.
- Respondents to the Survey of ATP Joint Ventures estimated the probability of fully achieving the technical goals of the ATP joint venture project at 55% as compared to 68% for typical R&D projects at the company (see Figure 7.1).
Figure 7.1 - Mean estimate of the probability that the ATP joint venture project will achieve its technical goals as compared to a typical R&D project at the company |
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Small companies reported higher probability estimates of the joint venture project's success in fully achieving its technical goals.1
- Respondents representing small companies reported higher probability estimates of the joint venture project's success in achieving its technical goals than large companies (see Table 7.1).
Table 7.1 - Mean estimate of the probability that the ATP joint venture project will achieve its technical goals, by size of company |
| Size of Company |
Mean estimate of the probability that the ATP joint venture project will achieve its technical goals |
| Small Companies |
59% |
| Medium-size companies |
55% |
| Large companies |
51% |
Larger joint ventures reported higher probability estimates of the joint venture project's success in fully achieving its technical goals.
- Respondents representing joint ventures with 6 or more partners reported higher probability estimates of the joint venture project's success in fully achieving its technical goals than joint ventures with 2 partners (see Table 7.2).
Table 7.2 - Mean estimate of the probability that the ATP joint venture project will achieve its techical goals, by number of joint venture partners |
| Number of joint venture partners |
Mean estimate of the probability that the ATP joint venture project will achieve its technical goals |
| 2 partners |
46% |
| 3 to 5 partners |
55% |
| 6 to 10 partners |
51% |
| 11+ partners |
56% |
ATP-funded joint venture projects have longer time horizons for realizing revenue and/or cost savings than typical R&D projects at the company.
- On average, the respondents to the Survey of ATP Joint Ventures estimated the number of years until the results of the ATP joint venture project could first have an impact on company revenues or costs at 6 years as compared to 4 years for typical R&D projects at the company (see Figure 7.2).
Figure 7.2 - Mean number of years to expected impact of the ATP joint venture project on company revenue or costs as compared to a typical R&D project at the company |
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- Respondents' estimates of the number of years until the results of the ATP joint venture project could first have an impact on company revenues or costs was not influenced by the size of the company, the number of partners in the joint venture, or the ATP technology area of the joint venture project.
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1. For ATP, small companies have fewer than 500 employees, large companies are Fortune 500 companies, and medium size companies are all other.
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Date created: August 2, 2006
Last updated:
September 1, 2006
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