|
NIST GCR 03-844
Low-Cost Manufacturing
Process Technology for Amorphous Silicon Detector Panels: Applications in
Digital Mammography and Radiography
Appendix B. Base-Case Calculations
Table
B1. Projected Additional Senographe 2000D Unit Sales: Base Case
| |
Without
ATP-Funded LCM Process: Counterfactual Case |
With
LCM Process |
U.S.
Full-Field Digital Mammography Unit Sales |
General
Electric Market Share |
Senographe
2000D Unit Sales |
Number
of Additional Senographe 2000D Units |
Cumulative
Number of Additional Senographe 2000D Units |
| 1996 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1997 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1998 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1999 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2000 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2001 |
52 |
100% |
52 |
|
|
| 2002 |
57 |
100% |
57 |
|
|
| 2003 |
63 |
90% |
57 |
|
|
| 2004 |
74 |
90% |
67 |
|
|
| 2005 |
111 |
80% |
89 |
36 |
36 |
| 2006 |
200 |
80% |
160 |
74 |
110 |
| 2007 |
440 |
70% |
308 |
15 |
125 |
| 2008 |
484 |
70% |
339 |
4 |
129 |
| 2009 |
532 |
65% |
346 |
9 |
137 |
| 2010 |
559 |
65% |
363 |
3 |
141 |
| 2011 |
587 |
63% |
370 |
0 |
140 |
| 2012 |
616 |
60% |
370 |
9 |
150 |
| 2013 |
647 |
60% |
388 |
10 |
159 |
| 2014 |
679 |
60% |
407 |
0 |
159 |
Table
B2. Projected Additional Revolution XR/d Unit Sales: Base Case
| |
Without
ATP-Funded LCM Process: Counterfactual Case |
With
LCM Process |
U.S.
Full-Field Digital Radiography Unit Sales |
General
Electric Market Share |
Revolution
XR/d Unit Sales |
Number
of Additional Revolution XR/d Units |
Cumulative
Number of Additional Revolution XR/d Units |
| 1996 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1997 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1998 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1999 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2000 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2001 |
138 |
50% |
69 |
|
|
| 2002 |
158 |
50% |
79 |
|
|
| 2003 |
183 |
50% |
92 |
|
|
| 2004 |
222 |
50% |
111 |
|
|
| 2005 |
299 |
50% |
150 |
35 |
35 |
| 2006 |
438 |
50% |
219 |
63 |
98 |
| 2007 |
689 |
50% |
345 |
17 |
115 |
| 2008 |
758 |
50% |
379 |
19 |
134 |
| 2009 |
834 |
50% |
417 |
21 |
155 |
| 2010 |
917 |
50% |
459 |
21 |
175 |
| 2011 |
1000 |
50% |
500 |
0 |
175 |
| 2012 |
1000 |
50% |
500 |
0 |
175 |
| 2013 |
1000 |
50% |
500 |
0 |
175 |
| 2014 |
1000 |
50% |
500 |
0 |
175 |
Table
B3. Productivity Gains from Senographe 2000D: Base Case
| |
Cumulative
Number of Additional Senographe 2000D Units |
Net
Operating Cash Flow Variance of Digital Unit over Conventional
Unit |
Cash
Flow Benefit from Higher Digital Productivity |
| 1996 |
|
|
|
| 1997 |
|
|
|
| 1998 |
|
|
|
| 1999 |
|
|
|
| 2000 |
|
|
|
| 2001 |
|
|
|
| 2002 |
|
|
|
| 2003 |
|
|
|
| 2004 |
|
|
|
| 2005 |
36 |
116,000 |
4,176,000 |
| 2006 |
110 |
128,000 |
14,080,000 |
| 2007 |
125 |
140,000 |
17,500,000 |
| 2008 |
129 |
154,000 |
19,866,000 |
| 2009 |
137 |
169,000 |
23,153,000 |
| 2010 |
141 |
169,000 |
23,829,000 |
| 2011 |
140 |
169,000 |
23,660,000 |
| 2012 |
150 |
169,000 |
25,350,000 |
| 2013 |
159 |
169,000 |
26,871,000 |
| 2014 |
159 |
169,000 |
26,871,000 |
Table
B4. Productivity Gains from Revolution XR/d Unit Sales: Base Case
| |
Cumulative
Number of Additional Revolution XR/d Units |
Net
Operating Cash Flow Variance of Digital Unit over Conventional
Unit |
Cash
Flow Benefit from Higher Digital Productivity |
| 1996 |
|
|
|
| 1997 |
|
|
|
| 1998 |
|
|
|
| 1999 |
|
|
|
| 2000 |
|
|
|
| 2001 |
|
|
|
| 2002 |
|
|
|
| 2003 |
|
|
|
| 2004 |
|
|
|
| 2005 |
35 |
149,000 |
5,215,000 |
| 2006 |
98 |
198,000 |
19,404,000 |
| 2007 |
115 |
251,000 |
28,865,000 |
| 2008 |
134 |
312,000 |
41,808,000 |
| 2009 |
155 |
381,000 |
51,054,000 |
| 2010 |
175 |
381,000 |
59,055,000 |
| 2011 |
175 |
381,000 |
66,675,000 |
| 2012 |
175 |
381,000 |
66,675,000 |
| 2013 |
175 |
381,000 |
66,675,000 |
| 2014 |
175 |
381,000 |
66,675,000 |
Table
B5. Savings from Avoided False Positives with Senographe 2000D: Base
Case
| |
Cumulative
Number of Additional Senographe 2000D Units |
Cash
Flow Benefits from Avoided False Positives per Senographe
2000D Unit |
Total
Cash Flow Benefits |
| 1996 |
|
|
|
| 1997 |
|
|
|
| 1998 |
|
|
|
| 1999 |
|
|
|
| 2000 |
|
|
|
| 2001 |
|
|
|
| 2002 |
|
|
|
| 2003 |
|
|
|
| 2004 |
|
|
|
| 2005 |
36 |
63,360 |
2,280,960 |
| 2006 |
110 |
63,360 |
6,969,600 |
| 2007 |
125 |
63,360 |
7,920,000 |
| 2008 |
129 |
63,360 |
8,173,440 |
| 2009 |
137 |
63,360 |
8,680,320 |
| 2010 |
141 |
63,360 |
8,933,760 |
| 2011 |
140 |
63,360 |
8,870,400 |
| 2012 |
150 |
63,360 |
9,504,000 |
| 2013 |
159 |
63,360 |
10,074,240 |
| 2014 |
159 |
63,360 |
10,074,240 |
Table
B6. Patient Savings from Avoided Time Off and Travel with Senographe
2000D: Base Case
| |
Cumulative
Number of Additional Senographe 2000D Units |
Annual
Savings from Avoided Time Off per Senographe 2000D Unit |
Annual
Savings from Avoided Time Off per Senographe 2000D Unit |
Cash
Flow Benefits |
| 1996 |
|
|
|
|
| 1997 |
|
|
|
|
| 1998 |
|
|
|
|
| 1999 |
|
|
|
|
| 2000 |
|
|
|
|
| 2001 |
|
|
|
|
| 2002 |
|
|
|
|
| 2003 |
|
|
|
|
| 2004 |
|
|
|
|
| 2005 |
36 |
13,467 |
1,536 |
540,108 |
| 2006 |
110 |
13,467 |
1,536 |
1,650,330 |
| 2007 |
125 |
13,467 |
1,536 |
1,875,375 |
| 2008 |
129 |
13,467 |
1,536 |
1,935,387 |
| 2009 |
137 |
13,467 |
1,536 |
2,055,411 |
| 2010 |
141 |
13,467 |
1,536 |
2,115,423 |
| 2011 |
140 |
13,467 |
1,536 |
2,100,420 |
| 2012 |
150 |
13,467 |
1,536 |
2,250,450 |
| 2013 |
159 |
13,467 |
1,536 |
2,385,477 |
| 2014 |
159 |
13,467 |
1,536 |
2,385,477 |
Table
B7. Summary Cash Flow Benefits with Senographe 2000D and Revolution
XR/d: Base Case
| |
Productivity
Gain with Senographe 2000D |
Savings
from Avoided False Positives with Senographe 2000D |
Savings
from Avoided Time Off and Travel with Senographe 2000D |
Productivity
Gain with Senographe Revolution XR/d |
ExpectedValue
of Total Cash Flow Benefits |
| 1996 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1997 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1998 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1999 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2000 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2001 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2002 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2003 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2004 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2005 |
4,176,000 |
2,280,960 |
540,108 |
5,215,000 |
8,548,448 |
| 2006 |
14,080,000 |
6,969,600 |
1,650,330 |
19,404,000 |
29,472,751 |
| 2007 |
17,500,000 |
7,920,000 |
1,875,375 |
28,865,000 |
39,312,263 |
| 2008 |
19,866,000 |
8,173,440 |
1,935,387 |
41,808,000 |
50,247,979 |
| 2009 |
23,153,000 |
8,680,320 |
2,055,411 |
51,054,000 |
59,459,912 |
| 2010 |
23,829,000 |
8,933,760 |
2,115,423 |
59,055,000 |
65,753,228 |
| 2011 |
23,660,000 |
8,870,400 |
2,100,420 |
66,675,000 |
70,914,074 |
| 2012 |
25,350,000 |
9,504,000 |
2,250,450 |
66,675,000 |
72,645,615 |
| 2013 |
26,871,000 |
10,074,240 |
2,385,477 |
66,675,000 |
74,204,002 |
| 2014 |
26,871,000 |
10,074,240 |
2,385,477 |
66,675,000 |
74,204,002 |
| |
Net
present value of ATP Investment
Internal rate of return on ATP Investment
Benefit-to-cost ratio for ATP Investment |
$219.4 million
69 percent
125:1 |
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Return to Table
of Contents or go to Appendix C. Step-out
Scenario Calculations.
Date created: April 25,
2003
Last updated:
August 2, 2005
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