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NIST GCR
02-829
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| This research project has experienced difficulties
acquiring and assimilating basic knowledge necessary for
the projects progress. |
||||||
| strongly agree . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | strongly disagree | |||||
| 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Respondents in general disagreed with this statement (e.g., responded to the statement with a 1 or a 2). Those who agreed with the statement (e.g., responded to the statement with a 6 or a 7) most frequently were involved in single company applicant projects with no university involvement. (21) To examine this issue of the research role that universities play in ATP-funded projects more systematically, ordered probit models were estimated to explain inter-project differences in responses by the contact person to the statement above. Held constant in these models are several characteristics of the project as determined from ATP information about the project and from responses to survey questions. The estimates are listed in Table 4. (22)
Table
4. Determinants of Difficulty Acquiring Basic Knowledge
| Variable | (1) Ordered probit coefficient (s.e.) |
(2) Ordered probit coefficient (s.e.) |
(3) Ordered probit/ sample selected coefficient (s.e.) |
|||
| Log of total project budget | -0.72 |
(0.36) |
-0.51 |
(0.30)* |
-0.52 |
(0.27)* |
| ATP share (fraction) | -2.31 |
(5.38) |
||||
| D (university participant) | 0.80 |
(1.38) |
0.98 |
(0.51)* |
0.90 |
(0.48)* |
| D (no experience) | 1.14 |
(0.50)** |
1.04 |
(0.50)** |
0.99 |
(0.47)** |
| Log (revenue of lead participant , $M) | 0.08 |
(0.06) |
0.09 |
(0.06) |
||
| Small lead participant | -1.39 |
(2.73) |
||||
| Large lead participant | -0.32 |
(2.49) |
||||
| Non-profit lead participant | -0.04 |
(1.49) |
||||
| Chi-square for 3 size variables (probability) | 3.03 |
(0.39) |
||||
| Information technology | 0.08 |
(0.65) |
||||
| Manufacturing | -1.22 |
(1.01) |
||||
| Electronics | 3.01 |
(1.06)*** |
2.75 |
(0.84)*** |
2.66 |
(0.80)*** |
| Biotechnology | 0.00 |
(0.63 |
||||
| Chemicals, energy, and environment | -1.04 |
(0.88) |
||||
| Chi-square for 5 technical variables (probability) | 12.30 |
(0.03)** |
||||
| Non-termination hazard | 0.71 |
(3.67) |
||||
| JVUS | -0.48 |
(0.81) |
||||
| Correlation coefficient | _0.99 |
(596) |
||||
| Number of observations | 47 |
47 |
54
(47) |
|||
| Log likelihood | -44.09 |
-46.27 |
-62.39 |
|||
| Scaled R-squared | 0.150 |
0.127 |
||||
| Chi-square (degrees of freedom) | 23.90
(14) |
17.54
(5) |
||||
Four observations about
the ordered probit model estimates in Table 4 seem relevant:
Each contact person responded
to a series of five statements. The first three of these statements investigate
unexpected research problems encountered to date relative to when the
project began. The last two statements relate to the productive use of
complementary research resources. The first three statements were of
the following form:
It appears from the univariate statistics that unexpected conceptual and personnel research problems occur more frequently among single company applicant projects than among joint venture projects, whereas equipment-related problems are more common among joint venture projects.(23) There is no clear response pattern that relates to the involvement of a university in the project with the exception that joint venture projects with universities involved as subcontractors reported the greatest number of unexpected personnel-related research problems.
Ordered probit models were estimated to examine responses to this statement more systematically. Held constant in these models are several characteristics of the project as determined from ATP information about the project and from responses to survey questions. Also held constant is the survey response hazard rate variable as discussed. (24) As seen in the specifications in Table 5 (columns 1 and 2), none of the individual variables is significant in explaining the existence of unexpected conceptual or equipment-related research problems. Becauase only very few projects had fewer problems of any type than expected, the three categories "of less than/about the same as/more than" were collapsed into two: "more than expected, or about the same as or less than expected." Even when re-estimated in this form in probit models (results not shown), essentially no identifiable individual variable effects explained the existence of unexpected research problems. Thus, we suggest that the presence of unexpected problems is perhaps random or a complex result of many factors that we cannot disentangle; that is, that they are truly "unexpected" given the information available to the firm (and to us).
Table
5. Determinants of the Problems in the Project: Ordered the Probit
Estimates
| Variable | (1) Conceptual coefficient (s.e.) |
(2) Equipment-related coefficient (s.e.) |
(3) Personnel-related coefficient (s.e.) |
|||
| Log of total project budget | -0.10 |
(0.34) |
0.46 |
(0.31) |
0.61 |
(0.39)
* |
| D (university participant) | 0.03 |
(0.73) |
-0.54 |
(0.56) |
1.16 |
(0.79) |
| D (no prior experience) | 0.61 |
(0.51) |
0.23 |
(0.49) |
0.65 |
(0.54) |
| Small lead participant | 1.16 |
(1.55) |
-0.32 |
(1.39) |
-1.48 |
(1.64) |
| Large lead participant | 0.91 |
(1.45) |
-0.96 |
(1.31) |
0.20 |
(1.55) |
| Non-profit lead participant | 1.29 |
(1.11) |
-0.90 |
(1.03) |
-2.64 |
(1.35)
** |
| Chi-square for 3 size variables (probability) | 1.49 |
(0.684) |
2.38 |
(0.498) |
11.27 |
(0.010)
*** |
| Information technology | 0.82 |
(0.67) |
-1.07 |
(0.66) |
1.77 |
(0.74)
** |
| Manufacturing | 0.06 |
(0.84) |
-0.78 |
(0.85) |
2.16 |
(0.97)
** |
| Electronics | -0.96 |
(0.98) |
-0.03 |
(0.99) |
2.63 |
(1.21)
** |
| Biotechnology | -0.13 |
(0.64) |
-0.55 |
(0.63) |
2.01 |
(0.76)
*** |
| Chemicals | 0.51 |
(0.78) |
-0.25 |
(0.75) |
0.47 |
(0.80) |
| Chi-square for 5 technical variables (probability) | 4.31 |
(0.506) |
3.02 |
(0.697) |
9.0 |
(0.110) |
| Non-termination hazard | 0.13 |
(1.81) |
0.62 |
(1.68) |
0.26 |
(1.80) |
| JVUS | -0.84 |
(0.76) |
-0.14 |
(0.69) |
-1.90 |
(0.85)
** |
| Number of observations | 46 |
45 |
44 |
|||
| Log likelihood | -30.24 |
-33.02 |
-27.00 |
|||
| Pseudo R-squared | 0.146 |
0.131 |
0.428 |
|||
| Chi-square (degrees of freedom) | 10.45
(13) |
7.10
(13) |
24.13
(13) ** |
|||
The estimates in column 3 of Table 5 suggest that the presence of unexpected personnel-related problems are associated mainly with the technology field. Project budget size is a marginally significant explanatory variable in explaining the presence of unexpected personnel problems: projects with non-profit lead partners are less likely to experience this kind of problem. Joint venture projects with university partners are both more likely to have personnel-related problems and also less likely to respond to the survey, so we cannot disentangle these two effects.
The fourth and fifth statements
addressed aspects of research efficiency that are related to the productive
use of complementary research resources. These statements were:
These two statements are
analyzed together because of the high correlation between responses.
Twenty-two of 42 contact persons responded to both questions with the
same percentage.
According to the raw statistical
data, the least amount of unproductive research time and cost was reported
by single company applicant projects with a university as a subcontractor. (25) However,
our tobit estimates (Table 6) reveal that this is because the technology
mix varies across project type. (26) Although
all variables in the estimation were originally included, only the size
of the lead partner and the technology variables were significant in
either equation. Unproductive time and cost seem to be most associated
with electronics projects and least associated with information technology
and manufacturing projects.
In comparing the estimates in the two columns of Table 6, projects in electronics have the largest share of time and money that is unproductively used whereas projects in manufacturing have the least. (27) Unproductive research time and money in electronics may be related to the fact that projects in this field also have difficulty acquiring and assimilating the basic research they need. Biotechnology projects have relatively little unproductive research cost, although somewhat more unproductive research time. Larger (profit-making) lead partners seem to be better at making productive use of research time and expenditure, or at least they perceive that to be the case.
Table 6. Percentage of Unproductive Research Time and Cost: Sample Selection EstimatesDependent
variable |
(1) Research time coefficient (s.e.) |
(2) Research cost coefficient (s.e.) |
||
| Log (total project budget of lead participant, $M) | -0.88 |
(0.30)
*** |
-0.84 |
(0.27) *** |
| Information technology | -5.92 |
(2.89)
** |
-5.76 |
(1.87) *** |
| Manufacturing | -10.54 |
(4.19)
** |
-8.64 |
(4.72)
* |
| Electronics | 11.08 |
(4.96)
** |
13.99 |
(5.58) ** |
| Biotechnology | -0.85 |
(3.13) |
-10.47 |
(3.23) *** |
| Chemicals, energy, and environment | 8.24 |
(3.58) ** |
6.55 |
(1.13) *** |
| Chi-square for 5 technical variables (probability) | 28.6 |
(0.001) *** |
26.7 |
(0.001) *** |
| Intercept | 18.39 |
(3.21) *** |
15.40 |
(3.12) *** |
| Standard error | 6.32 |
(0.70) *** |
7.40 |
(0.73) *** |
Probit
for Sample Response |
||||
| Intercept | 1.17 |
(0.26) *** |
0.97 |
(0.20) *** |
| JVUS | -0.55 |
(0.50) |
-0.77 |
(0.26) *** |
| Non-profit lead participant | -1.08 |
(0.46) ** |
-0.30 |
(0.33) |
| Rho (correlation between 2 equations) | 0.09 |
(0.57) |
0.99 |
---- |
| Number of observations (number responding) | 54
(42) |
54
(42) |
||
| Log likelihood | -151.34 |
-155.65 |
||
ROLE
OF UNIVERSITIES: EFFECT ON ACCELERATION AND COMMERCIALIZATION
TECHNOLOGY
Contact people were
asked to respond to two statements. The first statement posed to
the lead participant was:
| Potential
new applications of the technology being developed
have been recognized over the course of the project. |
||||||
| strongly agree . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | strongly disagree | |||||
| 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
A much larger percentage
of joint venture projects with a university involved as a research
partner reported agreement to this statement than did joint venture
projects with no university or with only a university serving as
a subcontractor. On average, though, respondents from single company
applicant projects agreed more often to the statement than did
respondents from joint ventures. (28)
Ordered probit estimates
for this question (corrected for response probability) were for
the most part insignificant. Column 1 of Table 7 shows a minimal
specification of the model. It may be that the generation of new
applications from a technology project in process cannot be attributed
to any particular individual project characteristic and is essentially
unpredictable regardless of the technology area. Projects with
a higher ATP share of the costs are more likely to develop unanticipated
applications for the technology. Perhaps a higher ATP share of
the costs brings greater resources for ATP monitoring or imparts
to the research performers a greater leveraging effect to search
for or to recognize new applications of the technology. University
participation seems to have no impact on the generation of new
applications of the technology.
The second statement posed to the lead participant was:
| At
this stage of the research, it appears that the
technology will be developed and commercialized
sooner than expected when the project began. |
||||||
| strongly agree . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | strongly disagree | |||||
| 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Table
7. Performance Determinants: Ordered Estimates with Correction
for Response Probability
Dependent
variable |
(1) New applications of technology developed Coefficient (s.e.) |
(2) Commercialized sooner than expected Coefficient (s.e.) |
||
| Log (of total project budget | -0.91 |
(0.37) ** |
||
| ATP share (fraction | 3.29 |
(1.41)
** |
||
| D (university participant) | -0.14 |
(0.42) |
-0.78 |
(0.42)
* |
| D (no experience) | -0.94 |
(0.44) * |
||
| Small lad participant | -1.34 |
(0.54) ** |
||
| Large lad participant | -1.73 |
(0.67) *** |
||
| Chi-square for size variables (probability) | 8.43 |
(0.015) ** |
||
| Information technology | 1.08 |
(0.52) ** |
||
| Manufacturing | omitted |
|||
| Electronics | omitted |
|||
| Biotechnology | omitted |
|||
| Chemicals, energy, and environment | 1.21 |
(0.74)* |
||
| Materials | 1.64 |
(0.76) ** |
||
| Chi-square for technical variables (probability) | 6.92 |
(0.074) * |
||
Probit
for Sample Response |
||||
| Intercept | 1.79 |
(0.40) *** |
1.47 |
(0.34) *** |
| JVUS | -1.39 |
(0.46) *** |
-0.69 |
(0.49) |
| Non-profit lead participant | -0.97 |
(0.48) ** |
-1.21 |
(0.51) ** |
| Rho (correlation between 2 equations) | 0.96 |
(0.67) |
-0.95 |
(0.28) *** |
| Number of observations (number responding) | 54
(47) |
54
(47) |
||
| Log likelihood | -79.72 |
-87.12 |
||
Single company applicant
respondents were more optimistic than joint venture respondents
about completing the research and commercializing the results sooner
than expected, and the most optimistic of all were single company
applicant projects with no university involvement.(29) , (30)
The response-corrected
ordered probit estimates for this question are shown in column
2 of Table 7. A number of variables are significant leading to
five interesting conclusions.
22. In
column 1 we include the hazard rate for non-termination (the conditional
probability density that the project will go forward to completion)
and the proxy for the survey response hazard (joint ventures with
universities participating as both partner and subcontractor) in
the model. Neither of these enters into the equation significantly,
implying that selection bias is unlikely to be a problem for our
estimates. However, the full model for sample selection (an ordered
probit equation plus an equation for the probability that the survey
was returned) is barely identified in these data, with a correlation
coefficient between the disturbances near minus one with a large
standard error.
23. See
Tables A5, A6,
and A7 in Appendix A. In estimating
the models for the presence of unexpected conceptual, equipment,
or personnel problems, the response scale (17) was collapsed
as follows: (1 and 2), (3, 4, and 5), and (6 and 7) were combined
because of the small number of responses.
24. Ordered
probit models that allowed for sample selection were also estimated,
but proved to be difficult to identify because of the small sample.
Therefore, we rely mainly on the ad hoc correction terms discussed
in the footnotes above.
25. See
Tables A8 and A9 in
Appendix A.
26. Note
that this survey statement addresses realized unproductive research
time and not expected unproductive research time. The same is true
for the unproductive use of financial resources.
27. This
is a hard question for participants in projects that are still
active to answer. Often there is a significant lag between obtaining
the research result and knowing with certainty that it will or
will not apply to the problem. Projects in the electronics area
might have the answer more quickly and that might be the reason
their numbers are higher.
28. See Table
A10 in Appendix A.
29. See Table
A11 in Appendix A.
30. In
future work, it would be interesting to look at these data with
only completed projects to see if this optimism holds since companies
may be more optimistic in their outlook when the projects are underway.
Return to Contents or go to next section.
Date created: October
18, 2002
Last updated:
August 2, 2005
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