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Closed-Cycle Air Refrigeration Technology: Economic Case Study
[View Case Study in it's entirety.]
Appendix C: Optimal Scenario Calculations

Table C1. Projected CCAR Units, Optimal Scenario
Year
CCAR units placed
Cumulative CCAR units
Replacing Cryogenic refrigeration
Replacing mechanical refrigeration
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001 e
2002 e
1
1
1
0
2003 e
4
5
3
2
2004 e
5
10
6
4
2005 e
5
15
10
5
2006 e
6
21
12
9
2007 e
21
12
9
2008 e
21
12
9
2009 e
21
12
9
2010 e
21
12
9
2011 e
21
12
9
2012 e
21
12
9
2013 e
20
11
9
2014 e
16
9
7
2015 e
11
6
5
2016 e
6
2
4
2017 e
0
0
0

Table C2. Cash Flow From Improved Quality, Optimal Scenario
Year
ATP investment
(million $)
Cumulative number
CCAR units (units
Volume of processed meat
(million pounds)
Incremental revenues
(million $)
Cash flow
(million $)
1996
-0.861
-0.861
1997
-0.915
-0.915
1998
-0.602
-0.602
1999
0
0
2000
0
0
2001 e
0
0
2002 e
0
0
0
0
2003 e
2
83.2
20.8
20.800
2004 e
4
166.4
41.6
41.600
2005 e
5
208.0
52.0
52.000
2006 e
9
374.4
93.6
93.600
2007 e
9
374.4
93.6
93.600
2008 e
9
374.4
93.6
93.600
2009 e
9
374.4
93.6
93.600
2010 e
9
374.4
93.6
93.600
2011 e
9
374.4
93.6
93.600
2012 e
9
374.4
93.6
93.600
2013 e
9
374.4
93.6
93.600
2014 e
7
291.2
72.8
72.800
2015 e
5
208.0
52.0
52.000
2016 e
4
166.4
41.6
41.600
2017 e
0
0
0
0
IRR 80%
NPV @7% $387 million

Table C3. Cash Flow From Improved Food Processing Yield, Optimal Scenario
Year
ATP investment
(million $)
Volume
processed meat
(millions pounds)
2 percent yield
loss reduction
(million pounds)
Value avoided
yield loss
(million $)
Additional cost (c/lb)
Incremental revenues
(million $)
Cash flow
(million $)
1996
-0.861
-0.861
1997
-0.915
-0.915
1998
-0.602
-0.602
1999
0
0
2000
0
0
2001 e
0
0
2002 e
0
0
0
1
0
0
2003 e
83.2
1.664
8.736
1
0.83
7.904
2004 e
166.4
3.328
17.472
1
1.66
15.808
2005 e
208.0
4.160
21.840
1
2.08
19.760
2006 e
374.4
7.488
39.312
1
3.74
35.568
2007 e
374.4
7.488
39.312
1
3.74
35.568
2008 e
374.4
7.488
39.312
1
3.74
35.568
2009 e
374.4
7.488
39.312
1
3.74
35.568
2010 e
374.4
7.488
39.312
1
3.74
35.568
2011 e
374.4
7.488
39.312
1
3.74
35.568
2012 e
374.4
7.488
39.312
1
3.74
35.568
2013 e
374.4
7.488
39.312
1
3.74
35.568
2014 e
291.2
5.824
30.576
1
2.91
27.664
2015 e
208.0
4.160
21.840
1
2.08
19.760
2016 e
166.4
3.328
17.472
1
1.66
15.808
2017 e
0
0
0
1
0
0
IRR 61%
NPV @7% $146 million

Table C4. Cash Flow From Food Processing Throughput, Optimal Scenario
Year
ATP investment
(million $)
Volume processed meat
(million pounds)
Increased volume by 1 percent
(million pounds)
Cash flow
(million $)
1996
-0.861
-0.8610
1997
-0.915
-0.9150
1998
-0.602
-0.6020
1999
0
0
2000
0
0
2001 e
0
0
2002 e
0
0
0
2003 e
83.2
0.832
0.4368
2004 e
166.4
1.664
0.8736
2005 e
208.0
2.080
1.0920
2006 e
374.4
3.744
1.9656
2007 e
374.4
3.744
1.9656
2008 e
374.4
3.744
1.9656
2009 e
374.4
3.744
1.9656
2010 e
374.4
3.744
1.9656
2011 e
374.4
3.744
1.9656
2012 e
374.4
3.744
1.9656
2013 e
374.4
3.744
1.9656
2014 e
291.2
2.912
1.5288
2015 e
208.0
2.080
1.0920
2016 e
166.4
1.664
0.8736
2017 e
0
0
0
IRR 20%
NPV @7% $6 million

Table C5. Cash Flow From Replacing Cryogenic Systems, Optimal Scenario
Year
ATP investment
(million $)
Volume processed meat
(million pounds)
Increased volume by 1 percent
(million pounds)
Cash flow
(million $)
1996  
-0.861
1997  
-0.915
1998  
-0.602
1999  
0
2000  
0
2001 e  
0
2002 e
1
41.6
-2
0.832
2003 e
3
124.8
-2
2.496
2004 e
6
249.6
-2
4.992
2005 e
10
499.2
-2
8.320
2006 e
12
499.2
-2
9.984
2007 e
12
499.2
-2
9.984
2008 e
12
499.2
-2
9.984
2009 e
12
499.2
-2
9.984
2010 e
12
499.2
-2
9.984
2011 e
12
499.2
-2
9.984
2012 e
12
499.2
-2
9.984
2013 e
11
457.6
-2
9.152
2014 e
9
374.4
-2
7.488
2015 e
6
249.6
-2
4.992
2016 e
2
83.2
-2
1.664
2017 e
0
0
-2
0
IRR 43%
NPV @7% $41 million

Table C6. Combined Cash Flow, Optimal Scenario
Year
Cash flow from quality
(million $)
Cash flow from yield loss
(million $)
Cash flow from throughput
(million $)
Cash flow cryoreplacement
(million $)
Cash flow
B+C+D+E
(million $)
1996  
-0.8610
1997  
-0.9150
1998  
-0.6020
1999  
0
2000  
0
2001 e  
0
2002 e
0
0
0
0.832
0.8320
2003 e
20.8
7.904
0.4368
2.496
31.6368
2004 e
41.6
15.808
0.8736
4.992
63.2736
2005 e
52.0
19.760
1.0920
8.320
81.1720
2006 e
93.6
35.568
1.9656
9.984
141.1176
2007 e
93.6
35.568
1.9656
9.984
141.1176
2008 e
93.6
35.568
1.9656
9.984
141.1176
2009 e
93.6
35.568
1.9656
9.984
141.1176
2010 e
93.6
35.568
1.9656
9.984
141.1176
2011 e
93.6
35.568
1.9656
9.984
141.1176
2012 e
93.6
35.568
1.9656
9.984
141.1176
2013 e
93.6
35.568
1.9656
9.152
140.2856
2014 e
72.8
27.664
1.5288
7.488
109.4808
2015 e
52.0
19.760
1.0920
4.992
77.8440
2016 e
41.6
15.808
0.8736
1.664
59.9456
2017 e
0
0
0
0
0
IRR 90%
NPV @ 7% $585 million
PV Investment ($2.10) million
PV of Cash Flow $587 million
Benefit:Cost 280 :1

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Date created: December 2001
Last updated: August 2, 2005

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