ATP Focused
Program: PREMIUM POWER
Supplemental Information
for
Focused Program Competition 98-03
| NOTE:
From 1994-1998, the bulk of ATP funding was applied to specific
focused program areasmulti-year efforts aimed at achieving
specific technology and business goals as defined by industry. ATP
revised its competition model in 1999 and opened Competitions to
all areas of technology. For more information on previously funded
ATP Focused Programs, visit our website at http://www.atp.nist.gov/atp/focusprg.htm. |
Technical
Program Manager
Gerald P. Ceasar
TEL 301-975-5069
FAX 301-548-1087
gerald.ceasar@nist.gov
|
Business
Program Manager
James D. Werner, Jr.
TEL 301-975-2153
FAX 301-548-1087
james.werner@nist.gov
|
Introduction
A global revolution
is taking place in telecommunications, information systems and the electric
power industries. Premium Power is a new ATP focused program targeted
specifically at the development of the critical, enabling power technologies
important to these changes. These technologies will find application in:
- Advanced batteries
and other energy storage devices for portable wireless electronics -
laptops, cellular telephones, smart card, microstamp devices, etc.
(1)
- Photovoltaic(PV)
power arrays and energy storage for new commercial Low Earth Orbit satellite
(LEOS) based telecommunications. (2)
- Distributed,
high quality electric power based on fuel cells and PV for commercial
and residential building applications, especially those intended for
broadband terrestrial telecommunications and microprocessor sensitive
industries. (3
,4 ,5)
Technical
Goals and Scope
The technical goal
of the Premium Power focused program is to support high risk research
and development which will accelerate progress in the power technologies
critical to the changes taking place in information systems, telecommunications,
and the distributed electric power industries. Technologies within scope
for this competition are limited to advanced rechargeable batteries, photovoltaic
(PV) arrays, integrated fuel cells, ultracapacitors and flywheels. These
power technologies should be especially enabling to the convergence taking
place in digital, broadband, multimedia communications and computing;
to mobile electronics; to dispersed fiber or wireless low earth orbit
satellite based transmission networks; and to distributed electric power,
especially that needed by power quality sensitive industries. The program
emphasizes portable and distributed power sources (milliwatts to kilowatts)
with a premium on high electric quality and reliability that American
telecommunications, electronics and power sensitive industries and their
customers demand. It does not focus on the low cost, large scale (megawatt),
grid connected generation of electricity that is the purview of DOE's
stationary central utility energy programs and which do not put a special
focus on power quality. Premium Power applications do not typically demand
that the power component deliver both stringent power and energy performance
at very low cost (as is needed by electric vehicle batteries) but do put
an emphasis on long life whether it is expressed in terms of run time,
cycle life or useful system life.
Technically the program
targets significant innovations in performance, cost effectiveness, and
electric quality of portable and distributed power systems through advances
in materials, processing, device structures, and systems integration.
Proposals within scope include (but are not limited to) those that address
new high energy density batteries; solid state fuel cells and PV power
modules suited to residential, commercial or small portable uses; high
efficiency, low cost and low weight solar cells for space and terrestrial
telecommunication uses; and high pulse power ultracapacitor devices based
on new carbon and metal oxides. Technologies that do not fall within scope
are primary batteries, lead acid, nickel cadmium and low risk modifications
of rechargeable batteries already in the marketplace; high power density
technologies for electric or hybrid vehicle applications; liquid electrolyte
fuel cells; current high cost geosynchronous orbit (GEO) space PV modules;
technologies best suited to central utility applications which exceed
250kW power capacity; and proposals that solely emphasize power conditioning
electronics.
Business
Goals
Foster research into
premium power sources to create more efficient production, storage, and
delivery of power for applications that are not connected to a central
generating station through a large scale power grid.
Establish the following
goals as benchmarks:
-
Increase market
share of US rechargeable battery production with a target of at least
30% of the worldwide market.
-
Establish a robust
US rechargeable energy storage industry with a goal of reducing the
manufacturing cost per kWhr by 50%.
-
Achieve a 10-fold
reduction in the cost of space photovoltaic arrays.
-
Reduce the cost
of manufacturing a kW of distributed, integrated fuel cell capacity
to $1500.
-
Shorten the time
to develop and manufacture new battery chemistries to make U.S. industry
more competitive.
Changes Occurring
in Telecommunications, Information Systems and Electric Power Industries
Driven by both technological
advances and non-technical factors such as deregulation and globalization,
several evolving changes are occurring in the telecommunications, information
systems and the electric power industry.(4) These include:
-
New system
architectures
The architecture of these industries is changing from a more centralized
to a more dispersed onewhether it be in laptop computers, cellular
telephones or stand alone distributed electric generation.
-
Increased
sensitivity of equipment
Increasing deployment of microprocessor-based equipment and systems
demands ever higher levels of power quality and reliability.
-
Increasing
environmental regulation
-
Increasing
interdependence between the power generation and communications industries
The deployment of new communications technologies will increasingly
effect the power supply industry, and changes in the power supply
industry will impact communications. Sophisticated, expensive communications
technology that is increasingly wireless and more dispersed fosters
the development of new power systems that can satisfy customer needs
and desires. Alliances among parties in these two industries are beginning
to form.
-
Broadband
Revolution in Telecommunications and Information Systems
Today's narrowband communications system will transition to high speed,
broadband, multimedia networks that will permit audio, full action
video, data text, and graphics to be integrated together over the
same communication medium. More and more-varied digital network systems
and transmission media are being tied together from fiber to the curb
and home to new wireless, low earth orbit (LEO)satellite-based Internet
and personal communication cellular (PCS) systems. And there is growing
expectation that all systems should be accessible seamlessly by anyone,
anywhere on earth at any time. The network required by this revolution
is broadband, digital, and able to serve high density mobile communications
and portable electronic devices like cellular telephones, laptop computers
and hand held electronic devices.
Rationale
for Premium Power
For these integrated
applications, premium power technologies are attractive because they meet
value-added, customer needs for:
-
Distributed,
Modular Non-grid Connected Availability
For satellite based telecommunication networks, cellular telephones
and portable electronics, premium power technologies are essential.
In this country broadband communications will require an increasingly
non-grid connected array of remote antenna sites, fiber-wire node
interfaces, and extremely reliable microprocessors with a 10-fold
increase in power expected per customer broadband line. Globally,
distributed/remote power such as from PV arrays and batteries make
it ideal for powering wireless tele-communications systems for those
without access to electricity, or for those who live where the grid
is unreliable and subject to outages.
-
High Quality
and Reliability
A critical need for the success of this communications and information
systems revolution is the development of reliable sources of high
quality, stand-alone distributed power that is low in disturbance,
and free of voltage and waveform aberrations. It is estimated by EPRI
that 40% of all electricity flows through or is controlled by digital
electronics and that this will increase to 65% by the year 2000(4).
Over the same time period deregulation of the electric utilities is
raising concerns about the quality of grid connected power. Brief
interruptions that would be tolerated in an analog network can lead
to more costly and prolonged outages in high speed digital networks.
In addition,
high quality electricity is also needed by industries that employ
microprocessors for process control. The semiconductor, chemical,
paper and automotive industries are a few examples where electric
system disturbances due to voltage sags, spikes and outages can cause
significant detrimental effects on manufacturing productivity.
Traditionally,
U.S. telephone companies have provided a high level of power reliability,
characterized by infrequent interruptions with an availability exceeding
99.999%. (6)
Large uninterruptible power supply (UPS) banks of lead-acid batteries
are employed so that when the electricity goes out, telephones will
still operate. Today's UPS systems require considerable maintenance
particularly in remote applications, and can pose safety and environmental
problems.
-
Minimum
Environmental Impact
As evidenced by the shift in policy by major oil companies such as
BP and Shell,(4, 8)
there are increased concerns over global warming and compliance with
the 1990 Clean Air Act and the new stricter Federal standards on ozone
and air particulate air pollution. In the process of technology development
and deployment, industries are seeking to minimize the impact on the
overall environment as well as on the specific communities they serve,
making "site-ability" an increasingly important consideration.
In summary, the technologies
addressed by Premium Power, including photovoltaic arrays, advanced batteries,
fuel cells, flywheels, and ultracapacitors are critical to distributed
power systems that are modular, reliable sources of high-quality electricity
with inherently low environmental impact. These technologies are important
to the US economy in that they underpin the changes that are occurring
in portable electronics, broadband fiber and wireless telecommunications,
and distributed electric power needed by power quality sensitive industries.
Potential
for U.S. Economic Benefit
The potential for
economic benefit from power generation innovation is immense.
-
Independent industry
observers and analysts have suggested up to $26 billion in lost productivity,
scrap and rework occurs annually due to events that compromise power
quality.(5)
-
Annual revenues
for worldwide generation and distribution of electricity are estimated
at more than $800 billion. (7)
But still, two billion people around the world lack electric power.(7)
-
By the year 2001
it is estimated that almost 3 billion rechargeable power cells (batteries)
will be sold annually, generating over $6 billion in sales. Approximately
65% of this usage will be for telecommunications and portable computers.(8,
9)
-
Portable computer
designers find it exceedingly frustrating that a PC design's random
access memory or hard drive capacity can be expected to double or
more on an annual basis, while despite the introduction of new battery
technologies, a typical computer's operational life until recharge
has barely doubled after five years of intense developmental effort.
(10)
-
At an average
price of $5.23 per watt, worldwide sales of terrestrial photovoltaic
modules totaled over $400 million in 1996.
(11) When the total system cost is
considered, revenues exceed $900 million.
(12) General industry consensus is
that when the price per watt drops to $3.00 or below, PV will be competitive
with conventional power generation and will be primed for rapid sales
growth.
-
Within ten years
of introduction, annual sales of fuel cells for commercial buildings
could reach $187 million if installed system costs are reduced to
$1,500 per kW(3).
-
Four billion people
around the world are without a telephone. Half the world's population
lives more than two hours travel time from the closest telephone.
(13) Access to future phone service
in these areas will likely be via cellular telephone.
Rechargeable batteries
which are primarily used for communications, computers, and portable power
tools will amount to sales of 1.85 billion units in 1997.(8)
Of this volume, fully 80% are manufactured abroad. Li-ion batteries, the
next generation of rechargeables, are being produced by at least six different
foreign companies, with only one company in the USA showing production.
(14) Over the next four years the total
unit volume is projected to grow to 2.94 billion units,(8)
a compound growth rate greater than 12% per year. "The U.S. has progressively
lost position in each generation of new rechargeable technology."(1)
If this trend continues, the U.S. can expect to produce less than 10%
of rechargeable batteries by the year 2001. The goal of this program is
to reverse that trend and add between 10 and 20 points of market share
to U.S. production. In 2001, ten points of market share would equate to
294 million units. Currently, capital investment required to produce rechargeable
cells is $1.50 per annual unit. (15)
Therefore, a ten point gain in market share would represent capital spending
of $440 million with the attendant employment both in construction and
manufacturing.
Fuel cells are stand
alone generation units that are quieter, and more environmentally friendly
than current large electric generating stations. They are also two to
three times more expensive than current technology. By reducing the capital
cost per kW to the range of $1000 to $1500, fuel cells will become competitive
with other forms of electricity production. Stand alone units will be
available for commercial and residential buildings, particularly in areas
where grid power is very expensive or not available. Fuel cells could
be used to generate power for small villages in areas of the world where
it is not practical to construct a power grid. Using a residential need
of 4 kW for a family of four, the unmet need of 2 Billion people worldwide
would be 2 billion kW which at $1000 per kW would be a potential market
of $2 Trillion. While achieving this total market penetration is not realistic,
even a 1% market penetration would amount to a total potential market
of $20 Billion, most of which would be export sales.
Terrestrial photovoltaic
power has grown historically at 14% per year. Over the next five years,
that growth could increase to an estimated 23% per year. This accelerated
scenario which is based on growth in telecommunication, particularly in
developing countries could result in $250 million in increased shipments
of arrays and devices. This increased usage by the telecommunications
industry will be enabled by cheaper and more efficient PV power.
While this program
is driven by customer-derived market opportunities, Premium Power will
accelerate progress in the development of inherently "green" energy technologies
and thereby promote a business and manufacturing infrastructure synergistic
with the use of these technologies. The spillover, environmental benefits
from such applications are significant. Photovoltaic power is a renewable,
environmentally clean source of energy. A typical PV panel (about 1.2
m2 in area) produces on average 3,500 kilowatt-hours of electricity
over its design life (equivalent to 1700 kg of coal), thereby eliminating
about 3000 kg of carbon dioxide emissions and significant amounts of other
pollutants that would come from a traditional power plant. (6)
Electrochemical fuel
cells operating on hydrogen and air as fuel produce only water as an emission.
Because electrochemical fuel cell and battery driven power systems are
2-3 times more energy efficient than present day Carnot cycle-limited
combustion technologies, total air emissions from fuel cell and battery
driven power systems are several orders of magnitude less polluting than
today's utilities and vehicles. This is true even when secondary emissions
are taken into account such as reformer emissions for fuel cells using
natural gas or when battery powered electric vehicles are recharged from
a central utility.
Technical
Needs and Potential Concepts
Energy
Storage (1)
Rechargeable battery
technology has long been a critical bottleneck in development of improved
portable electronic products for communications and information sectors.
While the U.S. is a leader in advanced battery research concepts, it is
vertically integrated foreign competitors that have come in the 1990's
to dominate the two new rechargeable battery technologies: NiMH (employed
in mobile computing since 1993) and Li-ion/liquid electrolyte batteries.
The National Electronics Manufacturing Initiative(NEMI) has laid out a
technical roadmap(1) with targets that, if achieved, will result
in performance significantly improved over today's batteries:
- Gravimetric energy
density: 250 Whr/kg
- Volumetric energy
density: 475 Whr/l
- Cycle life: 2000
- Cost: $1/Whr.
While it may be possible
to realize these goals with significant materials and manufacturing innovations
to new high energy density battery chemistries, other technologies such
as miniature PEM fuel cells and ultracapacitors may have a role to play.
Integrated
Space Power Arrays(7,13, 16)
LEO telecommunication
satellites are to be powered by PV arrays and batteries or miniature flywheels
for energy storage. The LEO concept differs radically from the traditional
geosynchronous earth orbit satellites that are some 20,000 miles from
earth while LEO satellites are positioned some 400 miles up. It requires
many more satellites to provide full earth coverage. Some 2000 LEO satellites
are planned to be launched in the next decade. For broadband Internet
telecommunications coverage, at least 300 satellites will be needed in
the first generation of this technology. Because of the low earth orbit,
the life of LEO satellites is expected to be 5 years which is much shorter
than GEO satellites. A key technical driver is the cost of the PV modules
and arrays. The payload weight of the PV array becomes a critical issue
because it determines the type and expense of the launch vehicle. Based
on input received from industry(11), program goals are targeted
at:
-
Cost effective
LEO PV technologies with a goal of reducing the cost of space PV modules
from today's $200/W to $20/W. Technologies that can reduce total integrated
system arrays costs by 10-100 fold.
-
Increase in power
gravimetric densities from present 15W/kg to >100W/kg.
-
Processing amenable
to high volume, low cost manufacturing. Today's space PV cells arrays
are made one wafer at a time by expensive semiconductor, single wafer
device technology processing, photolithography and vacuum metallization.
There is a need for more cost effective high volume fabrication technology
that can deliver high efficiency, low weight solar cells.
-
Batteries that
can meet NEMI targets and LEO temperature and life requirements.
Distributed,
High Quality Electric Power(3,4,5,
17)
Premium power technologies
including fuel cells, PV, advanced batteries, flywheels, and ultracapacitors
are ripe for a number of new remote and distributed on-site terrestrial
power applications provided advances can be made in performance and cost
effectiveness of these technologies. These include distributed stand-alone
power for residential and commercial installations, satellite earth stations,
fiber to wire(fiber optic nodes) stations, and the emerging PCS cellular
microcell sites. Because broadband fiber telecommunications networks will
require a 10-fold increase in power per customer line, telecommunication
companies are exploring the potential use of PV, flywheels and advanced
battery architectures as more cost effective, reliable, environmentally
friendly alternatives to the large UPS banks and remote cabinets of lead
acid batteries that are currently used. For power quality sensitive industries,
fuel cells under 250kW can have reliability, efficiency, emission and
siting advantages to grid generated electricity. Roof and building-integrated
PV can be important to eliminating or reducing(peak shaving) grid electricity
consumption. All of these technologies can be attractive to developing
countries where a grid infrastructure does not exist and where distributed
power can supply both electricity and wireless communications needs.
To achieve the $1-3/W
goal will require advances in component and system performance that generically
can be described by the development of:
-
Novel large area
device structures, e.g., high efficiency tandem PV structures that
could be important for urban applications where land is limited.
-
Fabrication processing
amenable to rapid, high volume, low cost manufacturing and automation.
Of special interest are manufacturing technologies that have been
proven in other applications but would be new to premium power applications
context and require significant modification challenges.
-
New thin film
materials, membranes, interface treatments that would radically enhance
functionality.
-
Design for reliability
and power quality. Opportunities exist, for example to apply advanced
communications and control technologies that are not typically needed
or used in current PV applications. Fault tolerance, built-in redundancies,
intelligent controls could be important features. Systems should be
capable of self-diagnosis with the capability to monitor not only
the power delivered to the load but also the health of the various
components and be able to provide advance warning of impending component
failure. For the new, potentially lower cost thin film PV technologies,
there are likely to be a number of design changes that can significantly
improve module and array reliability and service life.
During the 1990's
there have evolved a number of new developments in stand-alone premium
power technologies which represent radical departures from previous practice
and present a window of technological opportunity which can boost U.S.
competitiveness. These include:
-
Novel thin film
materials and membranes used in unique multilayer device designs where
control of bulk and interface materials properties, structures and
phases on a nano or micron level is important and where novel amorphous
or nanocrystalline morphologies are often employed. Examples include:
thin film amorphous silicon(a-Si), cadmium telluride(CdTe) and copper
indium diselenide(CIS) solar cells; proton exchange and solid oxide
membrane fuel cells; lithium-ion batteries employing organic electrolytes
and novel intercolation anodes and cathodes.
-
Movement away
from chemically dissimilar redox couples to new batteries based on
single ion conductors such as in nickel metal hydride and lithium
ion "rocking chair" batteries where a single ion is shuttled back
and forth between anode and cathode on charge and discharge.
-
Evolving development
of new polymer and ceramic membranes that conduct charge carriers
in the solid state with applications in proton exchange membrane (PEM)
and solid oxide fuel cells, and solid polymer electrolyte (SPE) Li-ion
batteries. Thin film PV solar cells are a solid state semiconductor
power device. The solid state has important implications for device
and systems reliability and safety.
-
Emphasis on new
light-weight, high energy density device structures with a transition
to elements in the first row of the periodic table that offer high
electrochemical potentials and new carbon and polymer chemistries.
-
Emergence of ultracapacitors
which can deliver brief power bursts over several hundred thousand
cycles and can be used in combination with batteries and fuel cells
for load leveling thereby extending energy density and run time. Potentially
promising are new lower cost, higher capacity electrodes such as those
based on nanotubes and other new carbon moieties, conducting organic
polymers or non- ruthenium oxides.
-
Potential for
new processing enhanced by increased molecular modification that the
new polymer, ceramic and thin film technologies offer. The multilayer
technologies employed open up the possibility of rapid, high volume,
low cost fabrication on an automated continuous, batch or roll-to-roll
basis. Large areas can be covered with good materials utilization
in a flexible shape format. Automated monolithic integration of many
cells becomes feasible.
Industry
Commitment
This program has been
developed on the basis of whitepapers and detailed discussions with a
number of industry sources, trade associations and environmental organizations
that have an interest in Premium Power. This includes technology providers
such as U.S. rechargeable battery companies and photovoltaic device manufacturers,
developers of fuel cells, ultracapacitors, and flywheels, and users of
these technologies in the telecommunications, portable electronics and
power quality industries:
-
The National Electronics
Manufacturing Initiative (NEMI) is made up of the major U.S. electronic
manufactures and suppliers. This industry group has identified advanced
batteries and other energy storage systems as one of six core technologies
critical to portable, hand held electronic products. A technology
roadmap, which served as the basis for the energy storage goals of
this program, has been produced with input from large and small battery
companies, their customers and universities.(1)
-
The Quality Power
Alliance which brings together the telecommunications industry, electric
power producers, PV manufacturers, PV systems integrators, and universities
stressed the need for a new program aimed specifically at technology
development for high-reliability, high-quality, integrated power systems
especially for telecommunications and power sensitive industries.(4)
-
LEO satellite
telecommunication companies and PV technology providers which called
attention to the specific performance and cost targets that need to
be achieved if U.S. companies are to be competitive in wireless, broadband
telecommunications.
-
The industry lead
Council on Competitiveness which has designated fuel cells as one
of seventeen critical technologies for the US. The Environmental Working
Group of the 1997 National Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors has
recommended that distributed fuel cells be considered as a clean,
energy efficient way to power future wafer fabrication lines and improve
the productivity of semiconductor manufacture.
This program is expected
to encourage greater cooperation and teamwork between electronics and
telecommunication companies and the power providers whether these are
component suppliers such as PV, fuel cell, battery companies or new utility
entities and alliances that bundle together technologies and provide new
distributed, premium power services. In today's globally competitive environment
electronic companies are typically on a short (18 month) product development
life cycle whereas premium power developers are on a many year development
time frame. An anticipated outcome out of this program is that greater
collaboration between systems and component companies will result in power
systems developed quicker than today with performance that is more fine-tuned
to overall system application.
REFERENCES
1. NEMI Technology Roadmaps, December 1996, p. 117.
2. Washington Post Magazine, August 3, 1997, p. 11.
3. Fuel Cells for Building CoGeneration Applications, Arthur D. Little,
January 1995, p. 6-17.
4. EPRI ATP Whitepaper, Distributed Premium Quality Power, September 4,
1996.
5. Westinghouse Electric Corp. ATP Whitepaper, Quality Power for Grid
Connected Applications, April 28, 1997.
6. T. Obransinski, C. Onori, J.M. Morabito, AT&T Technical J. 74,
44 (1995).
7. S. Guha, United Solar Systems Corp., ATP Premium Power Workshop, Gaithersburg,
MD, August 12, 1997.
8. Power '96, Technical Advances in Primary and Secondary Batteries, p.
5.
9. SRI Consulting TechLink, December/January 1997, p. 1.
10. 3M ATP White Paper, Distributed Premium Power Technology, July 1997.
11. ATP Premium Power Workshop, Gaithersburg, MD, August, 12, 1997.
12. Telecommunications Applications of Photovoltaics (PV). An Overview
of Solarex.
13. Teledesic Corporation, Published June 27, 1997.
14. SRI Consulting TechLink, February 1997.
15. SRI Consulting TechLink, March 1997.
16. D. Marvin, Space PV Research and Technology Meeting, NASA, June, 1997.
17. J. Wohlgemuth, Solarex ATP white paper, Importance of System Integration
and Reliability in Distributed, Premium Power Applications, April 22,
1997.
Date created: 1997
Last updated:
April 11, 2005
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