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ATP Focused Program: PREMIUM POWER

Supplemental Information for
Focused Program Competition 98-03


NOTE: From 1994-1998, the bulk of ATP funding was applied to specific focused program areas—multi-year efforts aimed at achieving specific technology and business goals as defined by industry. ATP revised its competition model in 1999 and opened Competitions to all areas of technology. For more information on previously funded ATP Focused Programs, visit our website at http://www.atp.nist.gov/atp/focusprg.htm.
Technical Program Manager
Gerald P. Ceasar

TEL 301-975-5069
FAX 301-548-1087
gerald.ceasar@nist.gov

Business Program Manager
James D. Werner, Jr.

TEL 301-975-2153
FAX 301-548-1087
james.werner@nist.gov

Introduction

A global revolution is taking place in telecommunications, information systems and the electric power industries. Premium Power is a new ATP focused program targeted specifically at the development of the critical, enabling power technologies important to these changes. These technologies will find application in:

  • Advanced batteries and other energy storage devices for portable wireless electronics - laptops, cellular telephones, smart card, microstamp devices, etc. (1)
  • Photovoltaic(PV) power arrays and energy storage for new commercial Low Earth Orbit satellite (LEOS) based telecommunications. (2)
  • Distributed, high quality electric power based on fuel cells and PV for commercial and residential building applications, especially those intended for broadband terrestrial telecommunications and microprocessor sensitive industries. (3 ,4 ,5)

Technical Goals and Scope

The technical goal of the Premium Power focused program is to support high risk research and development which will accelerate progress in the power technologies critical to the changes taking place in information systems, telecommunications, and the distributed electric power industries. Technologies within scope for this competition are limited to advanced rechargeable batteries, photovoltaic (PV) arrays, integrated fuel cells, ultracapacitors and flywheels. These power technologies should be especially enabling to the convergence taking place in digital, broadband, multimedia communications and computing; to mobile electronics; to dispersed fiber or wireless low earth orbit satellite based transmission networks; and to distributed electric power, especially that needed by power quality sensitive industries. The program emphasizes portable and distributed power sources (milliwatts to kilowatts) with a premium on high electric quality and reliability that American telecommunications, electronics and power sensitive industries and their customers demand. It does not focus on the low cost, large scale (megawatt), grid connected generation of electricity that is the purview of DOE's stationary central utility energy programs and which do not put a special focus on power quality. Premium Power applications do not typically demand that the power component deliver both stringent power and energy performance at very low cost (as is needed by electric vehicle batteries) but do put an emphasis on long life whether it is expressed in terms of run time, cycle life or useful system life.

Technically the program targets significant innovations in performance, cost effectiveness, and electric quality of portable and distributed power systems through advances in materials, processing, device structures, and systems integration. Proposals within scope include (but are not limited to) those that address new high energy density batteries; solid state fuel cells and PV power modules suited to residential, commercial or small portable uses; high efficiency, low cost and low weight solar cells for space and terrestrial telecommunication uses; and high pulse power ultracapacitor devices based on new carbon and metal oxides. Technologies that do not fall within scope are primary batteries, lead acid, nickel cadmium and low risk modifications of rechargeable batteries already in the marketplace; high power density technologies for electric or hybrid vehicle applications; liquid electrolyte fuel cells; current high cost geosynchronous orbit (GEO) space PV modules; technologies best suited to central utility applications which exceed 250kW power capacity; and proposals that solely emphasize power conditioning electronics.

Business Goals

Foster research into premium power sources to create more efficient production, storage, and delivery of power for applications that are not connected to a central generating station through a large scale power grid.

Establish the following goals as benchmarks:

  • Increase market share of US rechargeable battery production with a target of at least 30% of the worldwide market.

  • Establish a robust US rechargeable energy storage industry with a goal of reducing the manufacturing cost per kWhr by 50%.

  • Achieve a 10-fold reduction in the cost of space photovoltaic arrays.

  • Reduce the cost of manufacturing a kW of distributed, integrated fuel cell capacity to $1500.

  • Shorten the time to develop and manufacture new battery chemistries to make U.S. industry more competitive.

Changes Occurring in Telecommunications, Information Systems and Electric Power Industries

Driven by both technological advances and non-technical factors such as deregulation and globalization, several evolving changes are occurring in the telecommunications, information systems and the electric power industry.(4) These include:

  • New system architectures
    The architecture of these industries is changing from a more centralized to a more dispersed onewhether it be in laptop computers, cellular telephones or stand alone distributed electric generation.

  • Increased sensitivity of equipment
    Increasing deployment of microprocessor-based equipment and systems demands ever higher levels of power quality and reliability.

  • Increasing environmental regulation

  • Increasing interdependence between the power generation and communications industries
    The deployment of new communications technologies will increasingly effect the power supply industry, and changes in the power supply industry will impact communications. Sophisticated, expensive communications technology that is increasingly wireless and more dispersed fosters the development of new power systems that can satisfy customer needs and desires. Alliances among parties in these two industries are beginning to form.

  • Broadband Revolution in Telecommunications and Information Systems
    Today's narrowband communications system will transition to high speed, broadband, multimedia networks that will permit audio, full action video, data text, and graphics to be integrated together over the same communication medium. More and more-varied digital network systems and transmission media are being tied together from fiber to the curb and home to new wireless, low earth orbit (LEO)satellite-based Internet and personal communication cellular (PCS) systems. And there is growing expectation that all systems should be accessible seamlessly by anyone, anywhere on earth at any time. The network required by this revolution is broadband, digital, and able to serve high density mobile communications and portable electronic devices like cellular telephones, laptop computers and hand held electronic devices.

Rationale for Premium Power

For these integrated applications, premium power technologies are attractive because they meet value-added, customer needs for:

  • Distributed, Modular Non-grid Connected Availability
    For satellite based telecommunication networks, cellular telephones and portable electronics, premium power technologies are essential. In this country broadband communications will require an increasingly non-grid connected array of remote antenna sites, fiber-wire node interfaces, and extremely reliable microprocessors with a 10-fold increase in power expected per customer broadband line. Globally, distributed/remote power such as from PV arrays and batteries make it ideal for powering wireless tele-communications systems for those without access to electricity, or for those who live where the grid is unreliable and subject to outages.

  • High Quality and Reliability
    A critical need for the success of this communications and information systems revolution is the development of reliable sources of high quality, stand-alone distributed power that is low in disturbance, and free of voltage and waveform aberrations. It is estimated by EPRI that 40% of all electricity flows through or is controlled by digital electronics and that this will increase to 65% by the year 2000(4). Over the same time period deregulation of the electric utilities is raising concerns about the quality of grid connected power. Brief interruptions that would be tolerated in an analog network can lead to more costly and prolonged outages in high speed digital networks.

    In addition, high quality electricity is also needed by industries that employ microprocessors for process control. The semiconductor, chemical, paper and automotive industries are a few examples where electric system disturbances due to voltage sags, spikes and outages can cause significant detrimental effects on manufacturing productivity.

    Traditionally, U.S. telephone companies have provided a high level of power reliability, characterized by infrequent interruptions with an availability exceeding 99.999%. (6) Large uninterruptible power supply (UPS) banks of lead-acid batteries are employed so that when the electricity goes out, telephones will still operate. Today's UPS systems require considerable maintenance particularly in remote applications, and can pose safety and environmental problems.

  • Minimum Environmental Impact
    As evidenced by the shift in policy by major oil companies such as BP and Shell,(4, 8) there are increased concerns over global warming and compliance with the 1990 Clean Air Act and the new stricter Federal standards on ozone and air particulate air pollution. In the process of technology development and deployment, industries are seeking to minimize the impact on the overall environment as well as on the specific communities they serve, making "site-ability" an increasingly important consideration.

In summary, the technologies addressed by Premium Power, including photovoltaic arrays, advanced batteries, fuel cells, flywheels, and ultracapacitors are critical to distributed power systems that are modular, reliable sources of high-quality electricity with inherently low environmental impact. These technologies are important to the US economy in that they underpin the changes that are occurring in portable electronics, broadband fiber and wireless telecommunications, and distributed electric power needed by power quality sensitive industries.

Potential for U.S. Economic Benefit

The potential for economic benefit from power generation innovation is immense.

  • Independent industry observers and analysts have suggested up to $26 billion in lost productivity, scrap and rework occurs annually due to events that compromise power quality.(5)

  • Annual revenues for worldwide generation and distribution of electricity are estimated at more than $800 billion. (7) But still, two billion people around the world lack electric power.(7)

  • By the year 2001 it is estimated that almost 3 billion rechargeable power cells (batteries) will be sold annually, generating over $6 billion in sales. Approximately 65% of this usage will be for telecommunications and portable computers.(8, 9)

  • Portable computer designers find it exceedingly frustrating that a PC design's random access memory or hard drive capacity can be expected to double or more on an annual basis, while despite the introduction of new battery technologies, a typical computer's operational life until recharge has barely doubled after five years of intense developmental effort. (10)

  • At an average price of $5.23 per watt, worldwide sales of terrestrial photovoltaic modules totaled over $400 million in 1996. (11) When the total system cost is considered, revenues exceed $900 million. (12) General industry consensus is that when the price per watt drops to $3.00 or below, PV will be competitive with conventional power generation and will be primed for rapid sales growth.

  • Within ten years of introduction, annual sales of fuel cells for commercial buildings could reach $187 million if installed system costs are reduced to $1,500 per kW(3).

  • Four billion people around the world are without a telephone. Half the world's population lives more than two hours travel time from the closest telephone. (13) Access to future phone service in these areas will likely be via cellular telephone.

Rechargeable batteries which are primarily used for communications, computers, and portable power tools will amount to sales of 1.85 billion units in 1997.(8) Of this volume, fully 80% are manufactured abroad. Li-ion batteries, the next generation of rechargeables, are being produced by at least six different foreign companies, with only one company in the USA showing production. (14) Over the next four years the total unit volume is projected to grow to 2.94 billion units,(8) a compound growth rate greater than 12% per year. "The U.S. has progressively lost position in each generation of new rechargeable technology."(1) If this trend continues, the U.S. can expect to produce less than 10% of rechargeable batteries by the year 2001. The goal of this program is to reverse that trend and add between 10 and 20 points of market share to U.S. production. In 2001, ten points of market share would equate to 294 million units. Currently, capital investment required to produce rechargeable cells is $1.50 per annual unit. (15) Therefore, a ten point gain in market share would represent capital spending of $440 million with the attendant employment both in construction and manufacturing.

Fuel cells are stand alone generation units that are quieter, and more environmentally friendly than current large electric generating stations. They are also two to three times more expensive than current technology. By reducing the capital cost per kW to the range of $1000 to $1500, fuel cells will become competitive with other forms of electricity production. Stand alone units will be available for commercial and residential buildings, particularly in areas where grid power is very expensive or not available. Fuel cells could be used to generate power for small villages in areas of the world where it is not practical to construct a power grid. Using a residential need of 4 kW for a family of four, the unmet need of 2 Billion people worldwide would be 2 billion kW which at $1000 per kW would be a potential market of $2 Trillion. While achieving this total market penetration is not realistic, even a 1% market penetration would amount to a total potential market of $20 Billion, most of which would be export sales.

Terrestrial photovoltaic power has grown historically at 14% per year. Over the next five years, that growth could increase to an estimated 23% per year. This accelerated scenario which is based on growth in telecommunication, particularly in developing countries could result in $250 million in increased shipments of arrays and devices. This increased usage by the telecommunications industry will be enabled by cheaper and more efficient PV power.

While this program is driven by customer-derived market opportunities, Premium Power will accelerate progress in the development of inherently "green" energy technologies and thereby promote a business and manufacturing infrastructure synergistic with the use of these technologies. The spillover, environmental benefits from such applications are significant. Photovoltaic power is a renewable, environmentally clean source of energy. A typical PV panel (about 1.2 m2 in area) produces on average 3,500 kilowatt-hours of electricity over its design life (equivalent to 1700 kg of coal), thereby eliminating about 3000 kg of carbon dioxide emissions and significant amounts of other pollutants that would come from a traditional power plant. (6)

Electrochemical fuel cells operating on hydrogen and air as fuel produce only water as an emission. Because electrochemical fuel cell and battery driven power systems are 2-3 times more energy efficient than present day Carnot cycle-limited combustion technologies, total air emissions from fuel cell and battery driven power systems are several orders of magnitude less polluting than today's utilities and vehicles. This is true even when secondary emissions are taken into account such as reformer emissions for fuel cells using natural gas or when battery powered electric vehicles are recharged from a central utility.

Technical Needs and Potential Concepts

Energy Storage (1)

Rechargeable battery technology has long been a critical bottleneck in development of improved portable electronic products for communications and information sectors. While the U.S. is a leader in advanced battery research concepts, it is vertically integrated foreign competitors that have come in the 1990's to dominate the two new rechargeable battery technologies: NiMH (employed in mobile computing since 1993) and Li-ion/liquid electrolyte batteries. The National Electronics Manufacturing Initiative(NEMI) has laid out a technical roadmap(1) with targets that, if achieved, will result in performance significantly improved over today's batteries:

  • Gravimetric energy density: 250 Whr/kg
  • Volumetric energy density: 475 Whr/l
  • Cycle life: 2000
  • Cost: $1/Whr.

While it may be possible to realize these goals with significant materials and manufacturing innovations to new high energy density battery chemistries, other technologies such as miniature PEM fuel cells and ultracapacitors may have a role to play.

Integrated Space Power Arrays(7,13, 16)

LEO telecommunication satellites are to be powered by PV arrays and batteries or miniature flywheels for energy storage. The LEO concept differs radically from the traditional geosynchronous earth orbit satellites that are some 20,000 miles from earth while LEO satellites are positioned some 400 miles up. It requires many more satellites to provide full earth coverage. Some 2000 LEO satellites are planned to be launched in the next decade. For broadband Internet telecommunications coverage, at least 300 satellites will be needed in the first generation of this technology. Because of the low earth orbit, the life of LEO satellites is expected to be 5 years which is much shorter than GEO satellites. A key technical driver is the cost of the PV modules and arrays. The payload weight of the PV array becomes a critical issue because it determines the type and expense of the launch vehicle. Based on input received from industry(11), program goals are targeted at:

  • Cost effective LEO PV technologies with a goal of reducing the cost of space PV modules from today's $200/W to $20/W. Technologies that can reduce total integrated system arrays costs by 10-100 fold.

  • Increase in power gravimetric densities from present 15W/kg to >100W/kg.

  • Processing amenable to high volume, low cost manufacturing. Today's space PV cells arrays are made one wafer at a time by expensive semiconductor, single wafer device technology processing, photolithography and vacuum metallization. There is a need for more cost effective high volume fabrication technology that can deliver high efficiency, low weight solar cells.

  • Batteries that can meet NEMI targets and LEO temperature and life requirements.

Distributed, High Quality Electric Power(3,4,5, 17)

Premium power technologies including fuel cells, PV, advanced batteries, flywheels, and ultracapacitors are ripe for a number of new remote and distributed on-site terrestrial power applications provided advances can be made in performance and cost effectiveness of these technologies. These include distributed stand-alone power for residential and commercial installations, satellite earth stations, fiber to wire(fiber optic nodes) stations, and the emerging PCS cellular microcell sites. Because broadband fiber telecommunications networks will require a 10-fold increase in power per customer line, telecommunication companies are exploring the potential use of PV, flywheels and advanced battery architectures as more cost effective, reliable, environmentally friendly alternatives to the large UPS banks and remote cabinets of lead acid batteries that are currently used. For power quality sensitive industries, fuel cells under 250kW can have reliability, efficiency, emission and siting advantages to grid generated electricity. Roof and building-integrated PV can be important to eliminating or reducing(peak shaving) grid electricity consumption. All of these technologies can be attractive to developing countries where a grid infrastructure does not exist and where distributed power can supply both electricity and wireless communications needs.

To achieve the $1-3/W goal will require advances in component and system performance that generically can be described by the development of:

  • Novel large area device structures, e.g., high efficiency tandem PV structures that could be important for urban applications where land is limited.

  • Fabrication processing amenable to rapid, high volume, low cost manufacturing and automation. Of special interest are manufacturing technologies that have been proven in other applications but would be new to premium power applications context and require significant modification challenges.

  • New thin film materials, membranes, interface treatments that would radically enhance functionality.

  • Design for reliability and power quality. Opportunities exist, for example to apply advanced communications and control technologies that are not typically needed or used in current PV applications. Fault tolerance, built-in redundancies, intelligent controls could be important features. Systems should be capable of self-diagnosis with the capability to monitor not only the power delivered to the load but also the health of the various components and be able to provide advance warning of impending component failure. For the new, potentially lower cost thin film PV technologies, there are likely to be a number of design changes that can significantly improve module and array reliability and service life.

During the 1990's there have evolved a number of new developments in stand-alone premium power technologies which represent radical departures from previous practice and present a window of technological opportunity which can boost U.S. competitiveness. These include:

  • Novel thin film materials and membranes used in unique multilayer device designs where control of bulk and interface materials properties, structures and phases on a nano or micron level is important and where novel amorphous or nanocrystalline morphologies are often employed. Examples include: thin film amorphous silicon(a-Si), cadmium telluride(CdTe) and copper indium diselenide(CIS) solar cells; proton exchange and solid oxide membrane fuel cells; lithium-ion batteries employing organic electrolytes and novel intercolation anodes and cathodes.

  • Movement away from chemically dissimilar redox couples to new batteries based on single ion conductors such as in nickel metal hydride and lithium ion "rocking chair" batteries where a single ion is shuttled back and forth between anode and cathode on charge and discharge.

  • Evolving development of new polymer and ceramic membranes that conduct charge carriers in the solid state with applications in proton exchange membrane (PEM) and solid oxide fuel cells, and solid polymer electrolyte (SPE) Li-ion batteries. Thin film PV solar cells are a solid state semiconductor power device. The solid state has important implications for device and systems reliability and safety.

  • Emphasis on new light-weight, high energy density device structures with a transition to elements in the first row of the periodic table that offer high electrochemical potentials and new carbon and polymer chemistries.

  • Emergence of ultracapacitors which can deliver brief power bursts over several hundred thousand cycles and can be used in combination with batteries and fuel cells for load leveling thereby extending energy density and run time. Potentially promising are new lower cost, higher capacity electrodes such as those based on nanotubes and other new carbon moieties, conducting organic polymers or non- ruthenium oxides.

  • Potential for new processing enhanced by increased molecular modification that the new polymer, ceramic and thin film technologies offer. The multilayer technologies employed open up the possibility of rapid, high volume, low cost fabrication on an automated continuous, batch or roll-to-roll basis. Large areas can be covered with good materials utilization in a flexible shape format. Automated monolithic integration of many cells becomes feasible.

Industry Commitment

This program has been developed on the basis of whitepapers and detailed discussions with a number of industry sources, trade associations and environmental organizations that have an interest in Premium Power. This includes technology providers such as U.S. rechargeable battery companies and photovoltaic device manufacturers, developers of fuel cells, ultracapacitors, and flywheels, and users of these technologies in the telecommunications, portable electronics and power quality industries:

  • The National Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (NEMI) is made up of the major U.S. electronic manufactures and suppliers. This industry group has identified advanced batteries and other energy storage systems as one of six core technologies critical to portable, hand held electronic products. A technology roadmap, which served as the basis for the energy storage goals of this program, has been produced with input from large and small battery companies, their customers and universities.(1)

  • The Quality Power Alliance which brings together the telecommunications industry, electric power producers, PV manufacturers, PV systems integrators, and universities stressed the need for a new program aimed specifically at technology development for high-reliability, high-quality, integrated power systems especially for telecommunications and power sensitive industries.(4)

  • LEO satellite telecommunication companies and PV technology providers which called attention to the specific performance and cost targets that need to be achieved if U.S. companies are to be competitive in wireless, broadband telecommunications.

  • The industry lead Council on Competitiveness which has designated fuel cells as one of seventeen critical technologies for the US. The Environmental Working Group of the 1997 National Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors has recommended that distributed fuel cells be considered as a clean, energy efficient way to power future wafer fabrication lines and improve the productivity of semiconductor manufacture.

This program is expected to encourage greater cooperation and teamwork between electronics and telecommunication companies and the power providers whether these are component suppliers such as PV, fuel cell, battery companies or new utility entities and alliances that bundle together technologies and provide new distributed, premium power services. In today's globally competitive environment electronic companies are typically on a short (18 month) product development life cycle whereas premium power developers are on a many year development time frame. An anticipated outcome out of this program is that greater collaboration between systems and component companies will result in power systems developed quicker than today with performance that is more fine-tuned to overall system application.

REFERENCES

bullet item 1. NEMI Technology Roadmaps, December 1996, p. 117.

bullet item 2. Washington Post Magazine, August 3, 1997, p. 11.

bullet item 3. Fuel Cells for Building CoGeneration Applications, Arthur D. Little, January 1995, p. 6-17.

bullet item 4. EPRI ATP Whitepaper, Distributed Premium Quality Power, September 4, 1996.

bullet item 5. Westinghouse Electric Corp. ATP Whitepaper, Quality Power for Grid Connected Applications, April 28, 1997.

bullet item 6. T. Obransinski, C. Onori, J.M. Morabito, AT&T Technical J. 74, 44 (1995).

bullet item 7. S. Guha, United Solar Systems Corp., ATP Premium Power Workshop, Gaithersburg, MD, August 12, 1997.

bullet item 8. Power '96, Technical Advances in Primary and Secondary Batteries, p. 5.

bullet item 9. SRI Consulting TechLink, December/January 1997, p. 1.

bullet item 10. 3M ATP White Paper, Distributed Premium Power Technology, July 1997.

bullet item 11. ATP Premium Power Workshop, Gaithersburg, MD, August, 12, 1997.

bullet item 12. Telecommunications Applications of Photovoltaics (PV). An Overview of Solarex.

bullet item 13. Teledesic Corporation, Published June 27, 1997.

bullet item 14. SRI Consulting TechLink, February 1997.

bullet item 15. SRI Consulting TechLink, March 1997.

bullet item 16. D. Marvin, Space PV Research and Technology Meeting, NASA, June, 1997.

bullet item 17. J. Wohlgemuth, Solarex ATP white paper, Importance of System Integration and Reliability in Distributed, Premium Power Applications, April 22, 1997.

Date created: 1997
Last updated: April 11, 2005

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